Indian markets ended the week marginally higher amid sustained profit-booking and thin year-end trading in a truncated week. The Nifty 50 and Sensex fell about 0.4% on Friday to close at 26,042 and 85,041.45, respectively. Despite this decline, the Nifty snapped a three-week losing streak to finish up 0.3% for the week, while the Sensex broke a two-week slide, ending 0.13% higher.
With limited fundamental support for a sustained rally, profit-booking at higher levels has begun to sap market strength, said V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to sell into rallies, aided by stronger macro cues from the US, while delays in the anticipated US-India trade deal have emerged as a key disappointment for investors, he added.
Sectoral trends were mixed, with selective profit-taking visible across most segments. Metals emerged as the week’s standout performer, gaining 2.3%, aided by recent gains in copper and zinc, Vijayakumar said. “Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta will benefit from the spectacular rally in silver.” he added.
Capital goods and utilities also showed resilience, both ending the week just shy of 1% gains. In contrast, consumer durables, banking and realty stocks underperformed as profit-taking intensified.
Globally, Indian equities underperformed their Asian peers. Taiwan’s Taiex and South Korea’s KOSPI rose nearly 3% each during the week, while Indian benchmarks struggled to gather momentum. European markets were subdued, with the UK’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 ending the week lower by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.
What’s next?
Looking ahead, Indian markets will remain open through the coming week, but the New Year’s Day closure of US markets is expected to dampen global cues and keep FPI participation muted.
“Everyone expects a year-end rally, (but) it may not happen. The market can frustrate and disappoint in the very short run,” Vijayakumar said.
Historically, trading activity tends to slow during truncated weeks as liquidity tightens and volumes thin. FPIs typically move into a wait-and-watch mode during the Christmas-New Year period as global fund managers wind down activity ahead of year-end reporting
According to a Mint analysis of historical equity flows, institutional participation consistently tapers during this festive stretch, often resulting in range-bound market moves in the absence of major global triggers.
On the domestic front, early-January auto sales data could drive selective rallies in auto stocks reporting strong numbers, Vijayakumar said. Credit growth data may also spur stock-specific action in financials.
Other key data points to watch include India’s industrial and manufacturing output, the manufacturing PMI, and the US Federal Open Market Committee minutes, all of which could influence near-term market direction.
Meanwhile, India VIX hovered near its 52-week low, signalling expectations of subdued market activity. Market experts expect participation to remain limited across both cash and derivatives segments in the near term.
