Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar is having a dream run on the box office, which spells good tidings for the shareholders of PVR Inox, whose shares have been caught in a poor streak over the last few years. The stock is down 25% for the year and 42% over two and three-year periods.
Yet, in a tepid week for the BSE barometer Sensex, PVR Inox shares managed to eke out gains of 1%, as they rose in two of the five sessions this week on the back of stellar response to Aditya Dhar-directed film Dhurandhar.
According to a Mint report, by the end of Day 15, Aditya Dhar’s spy action thriller movie had already crossed the ₹700 crore gross milestone globally, and is eyeing to hit ₹1000 crore by the end of the holiday season.
Big boost to earnings
According to an analysis by Prabhudas Lilladher (PL) Capital, With Dhurandhar turning out to be sleeper hit and Avatar: Fire & Ash releasing on December 19, there is a strong possibility of industry-wide net box office collections (NBOC) breaching ₹3000 crore mark in the third quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26) — likely marking the fourth such instance post Covid-19.
The brokerage said that, conservatively assuming industry-wide BO collections settle at ₹3000 crore and PVR-Inox’s market share is at 30%, we arrive at the NBOC figure of ₹900 crore for Q3FY26E. NBOC typically forms ~50% of PVR-Inox’s topline, implying revenue can be ~ ₹1800 crore in Q3FY26E.
Dhurandhar has turned the tables in favour of PVR-INOX. The movie has crossed the ₹500 crore mark assumed by PL Capital.
It said it’s not that movies haven’t netted ₹400-500 crore in past. However, few expected the movie to do so well, and that is where the delta lies. “For instance, if we eliminate performance of “Dhurandhar” from industry-wide collections of ₹2570 crore, the “Secret Santa” element for the quarter goes missing!” it noted.
Echoing similar positive views, another domestic brokerage, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, earlier this week, noted that such strong theatrical releases have rekindled optimism for cinema chains like PVR Inox. The brokerage said that the fate of PVR Inox remains dependent on a strong pipeline of movies and occupancy levels.
The brokerage noted that a robust content slate across languages, along with event streaming strategies like ‘Blockbuster Tuesday’ and re-releases, could further support screen-level performance. The PVR management also expects the second half to match, if not beat, H1 performance.
However, the brokerage also cautioned that the business remains vulnerable to swings in content quality and occupancy. MOSL maintained its neutral rating on PVR Inox shares with a target price of ₹1245.
Meanwhile, PL Capital said that earnings revision for PVR Inox is around the corner for FY26E. “For 3QFY26E, if we assume a top-line of Rs18bn and pre-IND AS EBITDA of ₹2.9bn (margin of Rs16.5%; akin to 2QFY26), it leaves us with pre–IND AS EBITDA of Rs1.1bn for 4QFY26E; given our FY26E estimate is Rs8.1bn.”
It maintains a HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,211.
PVR Inox shares ended Friday’s trade at ₹1061.35.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
