Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to around $94,000 on Tuesday; however, it turned cautious about a potential year-end crypto rally as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this week while hinting at a slowdown in future easing.
Markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut when the Fed concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, data from CME FedWatch and Polymarket suggest rising wagers that Chair Jerome Powell’s comments may indicate a pause in January, as policymakers work to balance inflation control with signs of a softening job market.
“The crypto market is attempting to stabilise as Bitcoin trades near $92,000 after briefly climbing to $94,000 earlier today. Selling pressure has cooled and the market is no longer seeing the aggressive liquidations that defined the past few days, yet demand is still lagging as many traders wait for confirmation from the upcoming Fed rate decision,” said Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder&CEO,Pi42.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin forecast by half
Standard Chartered Plc has cut its Bitcoin price targets, citing weakening corporate treasury demand and slowing ETF inflows. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, half of its earlier $300,000 estimate, and has pushed its long-term $500,000 target to 2030 instead of 2028.
Bernstein analysts similarly forecast Bitcoin rising to $150,000 by the end of next year and nearing $200,000 by 2027. Although they dropped their earlier call for Bitcoin to hit $200,000 this year due to the latest pullback, they continue to believe the cryptocurrency has moved past its traditional four-year cycle and is now on a more sustained growth path.
Despite maintaining an overall positive outlook, these lowered projections reflect a noticeable shift in sentiment. The crypto market has turned tougher, with Bitcoin falling nearly 30% from its October high above $126,000 and institutional buying losing momentum. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $60 million in net outflows on Monday.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, the corporates that once boosted Bitcoin demand as treasury buyers — known as DATs — no longer have the valuations or reasons to continue accumulating the asset.
“We think that Bitcoin buying by DATs has run its course, while we expect ETF inflows to resume periodically. We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling,” Kendrick said in a note.
Crypto outlook
According to Avinash Shekhar of Pi42, the broader environment of the cryto universe remains cautious but improving as traders position around the possibility of a rate cut.
“If macro conditions soften and liquidity begins to return the current consolidation could evolve into a more constructive phase that draws buyers back into the market,” Shekhar said.
Meanwhile, Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange, said that Bitcoin continues to trade within the $91,000–$94,000 range, with a clear breakout above $94K expected to confirm bullish continuation. However, market liquidity remains thin, implying that traders might be anticipating a dovish Fed outcome rather than reacting to strong capital inflows.
“If the Fed delivers a dovish signal, it could trigger a liquidity-driven rally across crypto market. Conversely, a hawkish stance may prompt short-term profit-taking. For now, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with Ethereum leading the market’s momentum into the FOMC event,” Sehgal added.
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