Stock market today: The Indian stock markets have reverted to a flat trend following a positive rally observed over the previous weekend, with domestic indices opening slightly lower on Monday.
Investors are taking a cautious stance in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting set for December 9-10.
Market participants are closely monitoring global monetary policies, tariff specifics, and geopolitical events that may influence investor sentiment in the weeks leading up to the year’s end.
At 11:31 IST, the Nifty 50 index was valued at 26,065.20, reflecting a drop of 118.75 points or (0.45%), while the Sensex stood at 85,398.73, falling by 338.73 points or 0.40%.
Analysts highlighted that India’s domestic fundamentals remain robust, and the recent rate cut by the RBI has provided additional support; however, investors are looking for definitive progress on tariff-related matters before actively engaging in a year-end rally.
Market Views – Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities
Nifty 50
The week ended with a boost for the benchmarks: the BSE Sensex rose 0.52% on Friday, while the Nifty 50 finished with a gain of 0.59%. On a WoW basis, however, both indices were largely flat — Nifty 50 slipped 0.06%, and Sensex edged up 0.01%. During last week, the broader market indices underperformed the benchmarks and ended in the red. The Mid-cap index was down 0.73%, the Small-cap index declined 1.80%, and the Micro-cap index closed with a deeper loss of 2.88%.
Nifty 50 has strongly rebounded from the confluence support of the trendline and the 21-day EMA, without violating the swing low of 25,843, which keeps the higher-top, higher-bottom structure intact. After a three-day minor retracement from the all-time high, the index has now resumed its up-move with a strong tone.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, according to the preferred wave count, currently, the major “wave iii/c” is in progress, wherein the first two legs — minor “wave i/a” and “wave ii/b” — have been completed. The minor “wave iii/c” is in progress, which has already attained the minimum target of 61.8% projection of minor “wave i/a” and “wave ii/b”. The next target 100% projection level is placed at 26,880.
Bank Nifty continues to outperform in the current up-move and is now close to breaking out of its equidistant channel. Benchmark indices may appear stable, but underlying breadth has been deteriorating from November to date. The widening divergence between large caps and small/micro caps underscores an increasingly uneven market environment.
The Small-cap Index, along with its ratio chart versus Nifty 50, suggests that the segment is approaching a critical inflection point. Given the sustained strength in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Mid-caps, Small- and Micro-cap indices may soon attempt a reversal.
MSCI India Index, MSCI India vs. EM ratio, crude prices, and the Dollar Index all support a bullish stance for Indian equities.
Nifty 50 Strategy: The prevailing uptrend remains intact, and Nifty 50 is expected to move toward 26,325 in the near term. A breakout above 26,325 would provide a fresh long entry opportunity, with a positional upside target of 26,880 in the coming weeks. On the downside, 25,800 serves as a critical support and trend-reversal zone. A decisive break below 25,800 would warrant reducing long exposure as the index could slip into a corrective phase.
Stock Picks
Buy Kotak Bank (2,150) | Target Rs. 2,340 | Stop-loss Rs. 1,990
Kotak Bank share price has broken out from the short-term consolidation pattern on the daily chart. Stock price bounced from the strong demand zone, derived from previous swings. Stock is placed above all key moving averages, indicating uptrend on all time frames. Daily RSI is sustaining above 50, indicating sustained uptrend for the underlying. Daily MACD is placed above its signal line.
Buy Marico (734) | Target Rs. 790 | Stop-loss Rs. 700
After healthy correction, Marico share price has resumed its uptrend. Stock is placed above all key moving averages, which indicates bullish trend on all time frames. Oscillators and indicators have been showing good strength on the positional charts.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
