The Nifty 50 closed down 19.80 points at 24,634.90, while the Sensex shed 61.52 points to settle at 80,364.94. Market breadth remained firmly negative, with the overall advance-decline ratio decisively favoring sellers, indicating weakness across the broader market. The market remained cautious ahead of the ongoing RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Two stock recommendations for 30 September by MarketSmith India
Buy: Blackbuck Ltd (Current price: ₹633)
- Why Blackbuck is recommended: Scaling operations and network expansion, technology platform monetization, and value-added services
- Key metrics: P/E: 38.66; 52-week high: ₹670; Volume: ₹85.58 crore
- Technical analysis: Trend line breakout
- Risk factors: Low margins in brokerage/pricing pressure, asset risk, and partner fleet dependency
- Buy: ₹622-635
- Target price: ₹740 in 2-3 months
- Stop loss: ₹585
Buy: Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (Current price: ₹251)
- Why Aegis Vopak Terminals is recommended: Strong infrastructure and strategic terminal network, scalable growth backed by capital raise, and expansion plans
- Key metrics: P/E: N/A; 52-week high: ₹302; Volume: ₹41.71 crore
- Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 50-DMA on above-average volume
- Risk factors: High customer and geographic concentration
- Buy at: ₹248-252
- Target price: ₹290 in 2-3 months
- Stop loss: ₹234
Nifty 50: How the benchmark index performed on 29 September
Nifty 50 closed at 24,634.90, down 19.80 points or 0.08% on the day. The session was largely range-bound, with volatility constrained ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming policy meeting.
Sectorally, the session saw divergence, with selective buying in financials and metals, led by strong gains in IndusInd Bank and Titan. This was offset by a sharp drag from Auto stocks, including Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors, and continued pressure on IT and Pharma due to lingering global trade and visa policy concerns.
Nifty 50 became technically weak after breaching its 50-DMA, 100-DMA, and a key trendline. Momentum indicators confirm the pressure. RSI has slipped to 39, breaking support, while the MACD has given a negative crossover above the zero line. This setup indicates fading strength and a higher probability of further correction or consolidation.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, the market status has been downgraded to an ‘Uptrend Under Pressure’ as Nifty breached its ‘50-DMA’ and the “distribution day count” is at one.
The next critical support is now placed in the 24,500-24,400 band. A decisive close below this zone could intensify selling pressure and drag the index further toward 24,200.
On the upside, immediate resistance is capped near 24,950-25,000, which aligns with the 100-DMA. A sustained move above this resistance would be essential to signal renewed strength and potentially reverse the current corrective phase. Until then, the index is expected to remain volatile, with 24,800-25,100 serving as the key range to monitor for near-term directional cues.
How did Nifty Bank perform yesterday?
Nifty Bank showed resilience by closing in the green, up approximately 0.13%, driven by a significant rally in select financial counters. The sector witnessed a notable split, with PSU Banks leading the charge with sharp gains, while large private banks acted as a drag, with Axis Bank and ICICI Bank featuring prominently among the top index laggards. The index largely traded within 54,226-54,686 and closed at 54,461.
Momentum indicators continue to highlight a fragile structure for Nifty 50. The relative strength index (RSI) has eased to 42, reflecting weakening trend strength and underscoring the lack of strong buying conviction. Additionally, the MACD is on the verge of a negative crossover, signaling a potential shift in momentum toward the downside.
The index ended flat at 54,460, and has recently breached its short-term moving averages. Currently, immediate support is placed in 54,300-54,200, aligned with recent swing lows, with stronger support at the 200-DMA near 53,200. A decisive break below this region could extend downside momentum toward 52,800-52,500.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 54,900-55,000, coinciding with 50-DMA, while the next hurdle lies near the 100-DMA at 55,680. Sustained trade above these resistance levels will be critical to restore positive momentum and confirm a recovery in the index.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd. Sebi Registration No.: INH000015543
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
