The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Monday, amid mixed cues from global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,816 level, a premium of nearly 126 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market sharply ended sharply lower, extending its losing streak for the sixth straight session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,700 level.
The Sensex crashed 733.22 points, or 0.90%, to close at 80,426.46, while the Nifty 50 settled 236.15 points, or 0.95%, lower at 24,654.70.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts, and it is holding a lower top formation on intraday charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels.
“We believe that the short-term market trend is weak, but due to temporary oversold conditions, we could see a pullback rally from the current levels. For traders, 81,200 would act as a key level to watch. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue. On the downside, Sensex could retest the levels of 80,300. Further declines may also occur, potentially dragging the index down to 79,800, 79,600. Conversely, above 81,200, a pullback formation could continue up to 81,800 – 82,200,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities noted that Sensex slipped below its key moving averages, and is now approaching its 200-day EMA, a critical long-term support zone that could determine the next directional move.
“Going ahead, the 200-day EMA zone of 80,100 – 80,000 will act as a crucial support for the index. A sustained move below 80,000 could open the gates for a deeper correction toward the 79,300 level. On the upside, the resistance has now shifted lower to the 80,900 – 81,000 zone, which will be key for any short-term recovery,” Shah said.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 broke its short-term trend line support and formed a big bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating weakness. On the weekly chart, Nifty 50 has formed a sizable bear candle with a lower high and lower low, signaling continuation of the corrective decline.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart on Friday which indicates a decisive breakdown of crucial supports of around 25,000 – 24,900 levels. This is not a good sign and signals more weakness in the short term. Long bear candle has formed in Nifty 50 on the weekly chart after three weeks of rise, which indicates a possibility of faster downside retracement in the market,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is sharply negative and the market is now sliding down to the next important support of around 24,400 – 24,300 by this week. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,850 levels.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking said that the immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed at 24,500, followed by 24,350. On the upside, a decisive move above 24,900 is essential to reverse the current bearish setup.
“We expect the Nifty 50 to trade within a broader range of 24,300 to 25,100. The Nifty remains in a downtrend, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. It has now retraced 78.6% of its previous rally from 24,404 to the recent peak of 25,448, bringing the key support area near the 24,600 mark into focus,” Jain said.
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, on the downside, key support for Nifty 50 lies near 24,500, aligned with the ascending trendline, and a decisive break below this could open further downside towards 24,300 – 24,100, where the 55-week EMA offers support.
“On the higher side, immediate resistance is placed around 24,900 – 24,850, which is likely to act as a strong hurdle. Until the index reclaims 25,350, sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and traders may prefer a sell-on-rise approach,” Singhania said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 586.85 points, or 1.07%, lower at 54,389.35 on Friday. For the week, the index fell 1.93%, forming a sizeable bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating strong selling momentum and a shift in short-term sentiment.
“Bank Nifty index has breached its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all of which are now sloping downward — a sign of weakening trend structure. Adding to the bearish setup, the daily RSI is on the verge of slipping below the 40 mark, and remains in a falling trajectory. This suggests that momentum is deteriorating and the index may struggle to find immediate support unless broader sentiment improves. The current structure points to caution in the banking space,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Talking about crucial levels, Shah added that the 200-day EMA zone of 53,800 – 53,700 will act as a key support for the Bank Nifty index, and any sustainable move below 53,700 could trigger a sharp correction toward the 53,000 level.
“On the upside, the resistance has now shifted lower to the 54,700 – 54,800 zone, which will act as a crucial hurdle for any recovery attempt,” Shah said.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index broke its 100-DEMA support and formed a red candle on the daily scale, confirming weakness.
“On the downside, the next major support is placed near 53,785, where the 200-DEMA is positioned. On the upside, the 100-DEMA hurdle is placed near 54,900 which will act as the first resistance, followed by 55,510,” Yedve said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
