India’s macroeconomic narrative in 2025 presents a compelling mix of high growth, softening inflation, fiscal and external challenges, and dynamic capital markets and domestic participation, illustrating both the country’s resilience and its nuanced vulnerabilities.
The recent strong GDP print in the first quarter of FY 2026 stands as the fastest growth among major economies. This success was driven by gains in manufacturing, services, construction, and agriculture, demonstrating resilience in the face of U.S. tariff challenges. Inflation dropped to a six-year low, boosted by falling food prices. Manufacturing and services PMIs hitting multi-year highs signal a thriving business environment. Despite a widening trade deficit due to increased imports amid global volatility, strong GST collections shine against rising interest payments and declining non-tax revenues. This backdrop bodes well for a healthy growth outlook in FY 2026, reflecting India’s determination to navigate potential risks with optimism.
Indian equity markets appear to have gained stability, supported by government capital expenditure and reforms, particularly GST 2.0, alongside strong domestic inflows despite ongoing foreign sell-offs. The revised GST rate structure has created many winners over losers among consumer sectors. Lower tax rates benefit mass FMCG products and consumer durables, while luxury items and coal face higher rates. Exemptions for healthcare and education have further supported essential consumption and sentiment.
Large-caps look lucrative
Equity markets remain structurally attractive thanks to expanding domestic flows and supportive reforms; however, premium valuations on a forward earnings basis warrant moderation in investor expectations. Gradual investment deployment and dynamic sector rotation strategies are vital, with large-caps appearing to be positioned as primary beneficiaries during recovery phases of sentiment, given current valuations below medium-term average multiples. Mid-caps, too, present compelling growth prospects for investors with a suitable risk appetite.
Where to invest in bonds?
India’s yield curve experienced bear steepening as longer-term bond yields rose amid waning demand for duration paper and fiscal strain from the implementation of GST reforms. In August, the 10-year G-Sec yield hit 6.57% and the India-US yield gap widened, enhancing India’s attractiveness to global investors. One more repo rate cut is expected in 2025, with medium-to-long duration bonds and high-grade corporate debt favoured for optimal returns.
Stagger gold purchases amid high prices
Gold prices surged to unprecedented highs in September, reflecting safe-haven demand during times of growth worries in developed markets and challenging geopolitical conditions. While consensus forecasters continue to be optimistic, based on Federal Reserve policy and investor risk aversion. However, investors need to exercise caution in fresh allocations to the yellow commodity, given the sharp surge in a very short span of time, limiting the margin of safety. Hence, fresh purchases can be done gradually to mitigate price risks.
(Rajesh Cheruvu is the MD and Chief Investment Officer at LGT Wealth India.)
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