Gold rate today: Gold prices could surge to nearly $5,000 an ounce if the Federal Reserve’s independence were undermined and investors redirected even a small share of their Treasury holdings into gold, said Goldman Sachs in a its recent report.
The bank projected several potential scenarios for the metal’s price, with a baseline forecast of it rising to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026; a tail-risk scenario predicting $4,500; and a higher estimate of nearly $5,000 if just 1 per cent of the privately held US Treasury market shifted into gold.
“We see potential upside to gold prices even above our tail risk scenario of $4,500/toz, which itself is already well above our $4,000 mid-2026 baseline1, given the very small size of the physical gold ETF market relative to Treasury bonds, at only 1%. For example, we estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000/toz, assuming everything else constant. As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space,” the bank said in its report.
Bullion has emerged as one of the top-performing major commodities this year, surging over one-third and reaching a record high earlier this week. The rally has been driven by central bank purchases and expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting US interest rates. Further momentum was added recently as President Donald Trump sought to exert greater influence over the Fed, including efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
“A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve-currency status. In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust,” the report added.
Goldman Sachs views on other commodities
The bank has maintained bullish views not only on gold but also on copper and US Natural Gas, however, see the current oversupply in oil markets intensifying.
“In particular, we expect strong non-OPEC ex-US oil supply growth to drive a 1.8 mb/d surplus in global markets in 2026, ultimately pressuring Brent to the low $50s/bbl by late 2026,” the bank said.
The bank further anticipates strong non-OPEC ex-US oil supply growth to drive a 1.8 mb/d surplus in global markets in 2026, ultimately pressuring Brent to the low $50s/bbl by late 2026.
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