Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) extended their losing streak on Monday, September 1, slipping a little over 1% to hit the day’s low of ₹1,341.70. This decline followed a 2% drop in the previous session, as investors digested key announcements made at RIL’s 48th Annual General Meeting (AGM) held on Friday.
Despite the short-term correction, analysts remain largely optimistic on the oil-to-telecom conglomerate, citing its roadmap for Jio’s IPO, strong retail growth outlook, and aggressive push into Artificial Intelligence (AI) and new energy ventures as major long-term growth drivers.
Jio IPO in First Half of 2026
The biggest takeaway from the AGM was Mukesh Ambani’s announcement that Jio Platforms will go public in the first half of 2026. Market watchers believe this could be India’s largest-ever IPO and a major value-unlocking event for shareholders.
Isha Ambani also outlined an ambitious target for Reliance Retail, projecting roughly 20% CAGR over the next three years. In addition, Reliance Consumer Products Limited (RCPL) will now be a direct subsidiary of RIL, with a goal of reaching ₹1 lakh crore in revenue within the next five years.
Analysts’ Take on AGM Announcements
Motilal Oswal expects Jio to remain RIL’s key growth driver, projecting a 19% Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28. This growth is expected to be supported by another round of tariff hikes, wireless market share gains, and continued ramp-up of Jio’s Homes and Enterprise businesses.
On the O2C front, earnings recovery is expected after a subdued FY25, driven by stronger refining margins, though FY28 consolidated Ebitda from O2C and E&P is still seen around 4% lower than FY24 levels. Overall, Motilal Oswal forecasts an 11% CAGR in consolidated Ebitda and PAT over FY25-28.
The brokerage believes RIL has already passed the peak of its capex cycle, which should allow healthy free cash flow generation (estimated at ₹1 trillion over FY25-28) and reduce consolidated net debt. It retained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,700 per share, implying an upside of almost 27 percent.
Nuvama Institutional Equities
Nuvama expects strong growth from RIL’s retail and digital segments, supported by massive petrochemical capacity expansions. The upcoming Jio IPO could unlock significant shareholder value, although a holding company discount may partially cap the upside.
Nuvama also sees New Energy PAT rising from ₹300 crore in FY26 to ₹11,400 crore in FY30, implying a stellar 140% CAGR. This would raise New Energy’s share of overall PAT to 9% by FY30 and contribute to RIL’s goal of deriving more than 50% of PAT from green businesses by 2030. The brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,733, implying a 29 percent upside potential.
JM Financial noted that RIL’s plan to list Jio by mid-2026 raises the likelihood of a telecom tariff hike by end-2025, which could benefit both RIL and Bharti Airtel.
The brokerage highlighted RIL’s launch of Reliance Intelligence, a new AI-focused unit working with global partners such as Meta and Google. It also pointed to the company’s ₹75,000 billion O2C expansion plan, rapid progress in New Energy, and reiterated RIL’s stated goal of more than doubling its Ebitda by 2027. JM Financial maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,700.
In conclusion, while RIL’s stock has seen a near-term dip following the AGM, analysts remain upbeat on the company’s long-term prospects. The timeline for Jio’s IPO, ambitious growth targets for Retail and Consumer Products, and an aggressive push into AI and New Energy are seen as catalysts that could drive the next phase of value creation. With most brokerages retaining a ‘Buy’ rating and setting target prices up to 27% higher, RIL remains firmly in focus for investors looking at India’s growth story.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
