Thermal power giant NTPC Ltd is betting big on expanding its generation capacity—a key message from its management at the annual analysts and institutional investors meeting on Monday. The management has revised its capacity addition target to 149GW by 2032 from 130GW by 2030, implying a group-level investment of ₹7 trillion.
NTPC’s current group capacity stands at 83GW. The planned capital expenditure (capex) spans thermal, renewable energy (RE), nuclear, energy storage systems, green energy, and green chemicals. The RE capacity addition will be led by its listed green subsidiary NTPC Green Energy. Out of the total, FY26-28 is expected to see a capex of ₹2.7 trillion.
NTPC is also substantially investing in coal-based capacity, which is essential to maintaining supply reliability and grid stability. Of the 31GW of capacity under construction, 16GW is coal-based, which would keep its share at a sizeable 70%, although down from 77% currently.
To ensure fuel security and supply reliability, NTPC aims to have 25% of its coal requirement through captive mining by FY30, up from 15% currently. Further, the development of 4x700MW reactors at Mahi Banswara, Rajasthan, by Ashvini, its joint venture with Nuclear Power Corp. Ltd, marks its entry into nuclear energy.
NTPC’s efforts to diversify and go greener are positive, but may notbe enough to reverse the stock’s underperformance, which has declined 17% in the last year. Execution remains the critical challenge. A delay in execution also adds to the cost.
“While the company has ambitious capacity targets, capacity addition in FY25 fell short of expectations at ~4GW,” said ICICI Securities in a report dated 19 August. NTPC’s on-ground execution which has improved in year-to-date FY26, will be a key monitorable, added the report. So far in FY26, it has commissioned 2.8GW of capacity against the target of 11.8GW for the year.
But the June quarter (Q1FY26) performance was subdued. Standalone revenue fell 4% year-on-year to ₹42,572 crore, weighed down by early monsoon affecting demand. Power generation fell by 7% in Q1FY26.
According to the management, overall power generation across the country was flat in FY25, and it expects healthy demand growth in H2FY26, particularly following the monsoon season.
NTPC saw a sharp year-on-year decline of 17% in standalone Ebitda to ₹10,300 crore, due to a surge in other expenses. Of the total equity of ₹1.9 trillion at the end Q1FY26, regulated equity stood at ₹1.1 trillion, on which, NTPC gets a fixed rate of return, subject to availability of the plant.
NTPC’s progress in the capital-intensive energy storage solutions segment is also crucial. It recently commissioned the second unit of its pumped storage project (PSP) at Tehri, Uttarakhand, with a capacity of 0.25GW.
Energy storage projects can store surplus renewable power during low-demand hours and release it during peak periods. For instance, on the India Energy Exchange, a power trading platform, market-clearing prices plunged to just ₹0.1 per unit in the afternoons of April and May this year amid abundant solar power supply, but spiked to ₹3.85 per unit during evening peak demand hours.
NTPC plans to add 3-5GW of PSPs by FY32, sites for which have been identified. It is also investing in battery energy storage systems (BESS) across multiple technologies, with one project expected to be commissionedin FY26. Its 1-tonne-per-day green hydrogen plant at Simhadri is also expected to be commissioned in FY26.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg data shows the stock trading at a reasonable FY26 EV/Ebitda of 9.4x.
