Gold has delivered mouth-watering returns in recent years, significantly outperforming equities, thanks to heightened global economic uncertainty, monetary easing, persistent inflation, and strong demand from both central banks and retail investors.
From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices in India jumped from nearly ₹30,000 to over ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams despite intermittent corrections. This shows that gold prices have given a stellar return of over 200 per cent in about six years, compared to about 120 per cent return by the Nifty 50.
Since 2015, gold has outperformed both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 most of the years.
What drives the gold price?
Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, attracting investors during periods of economic uncertainty, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
Over the past six years, a confluence of factors — including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, persistent inflation, slowing global economic growth, and aggressive central bank buying — have been key drivers of gold prices.
More recently, a trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies has served as an additional catalyst for gold’s bullish run.
“Domestic Gold prices have shown a 200 per cent increase in the last six years. From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices skyrocketed from ₹30,000 to over ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services observed.
Can gold’s bull run continue?
Geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, particularly the US President’s tariff stance, will remain a key driver of gold prices. Markets have yet to fully price in the unpredictability of trade policy.
Additionally, interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks globally are likely to provide further support to gold.
Experts believe that after delivering strong returns in the first half of the year, gold appears well-positioned to extend its gains in the second half as well.
However, due to demand fatigue at higher levels, gold may see some profit booking before starting fresh uptrends. So, one may consider booking some profits at this juncture.
For investors with a medium-term investment horizon, it makes sense to buy gold on dips as prices look ripe for corrections. Experts appear to be slightly cautious for the short to medium term.
“Following our long-standing bullish stance on the yellow metal, we are now taking a cautious pause in July 2025 — without completely turning away from it,” said Manav Modi, Analyst- Precious Metal Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“While normal price fluctuations will continue, for gold prices to move beyond current all-time highs, the market requires fresh and significant catalysts. We are likely to see a period of price consolidation until the emergence of any decisive or longer-term triggers,” Modi noted.
Anuj Gupta, the director of Ya Wealth, also recommends booking some profits.
“Investors who entered gold five to six years ago may consider booking partial profits at current levels, as a short-term correction cannot be ruled out before the next leg of the rally,” said Gupta.
Gupta’s year-end target is $3,500–$3,700 per troy ounce, with MCX Gold expected to trade in the range of ₹ $1,00,000– ₹ $1,03,000 per 10 grams by Diwali 2025 or the end of the calendar year.
“Given the long-term bullish outlook, investors can either continue holding or exit partially and re-enter on dips. The yellow metal is poised to touch new highs over the long run,” Gupta said.
Buy the dips
Ajay Garg, the CEO and director of SMC Global Securities, underscored that with the Fed likely to cut interest rates later this year, and ongoing trade wars slowing down economies worldwide, there’s a growing worry about inflation, which could support gold.
Garg further added that wars are already happening, and trade conflicts will keep pushing people to buy gold as a safe haven. Central Banks are expected to remain strong buyers of gold in 2025 as well. ETF buying is swelling too.
Garg said gold may not see a huge drop, and one should buy on dips.
“For gold, don’t wait for a huge drop. The price is likely to find its own reasons to go higher. Buying gold when it dips a bit, perhaps around ₹96,000- ₹98,000 per 10 grams, would be a good move. We could even see gold hit a new record high of ₹1,05,000 in the second half of 2025,” said Garg.
Meanwhile, the recent moderation in gold could be attributed to a shift in investor preferences to other precious metals, such as silver and platinum. This trend may persist for some time, but is unlikely to keep gold under pressure for a longer period.
“A shift in investor preferences is largely responsible for the recent sideways momentum. Investors appear to be more aggressive in silver and platinum, seeking short-term trading opportunities. Despite this change, we believe that gold’s downturn appears limited, as uncertainties related to tariffs are likely to enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven,” said Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst – Commodities at HDFC Securities.
Gandhi pointed out that the worsening economic and financial conditions, which are intensifying stagflationary pressures and rising US fiscal deficit, further reinforce this perspective.
“The August 1 deadline is approaching, and so far, the US has secured fewer trade deals than Trump had previously claimed and the market had anticipated. We believe that the uncertainty and concerns surrounding the tariff rates could trigger a breakout in gold prices, leading to a rally in gold prices, as gold is viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset during uncertain times,” said Gandhi.
Read all market-related news here
Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
