(Bloomberg) — Western Australia’s wheat production is expected to decline this season following poor rainfall across some regions, according to an industry group, which issued its first estimates for the year.
Wheat output is forecast at 9.4 million tons for 2025-26, compared with around 12.5 million tons in the previous season, a report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia shows. The state is the country’s largest producer of wheat, which is exported to Asia and the Middle East.
The decline is primarily due to poor rain in regions usually responsible for the bulk of the wheat harvest, said Michael Lamond, an agronomist and the author of the report. There has been some improvements in the weather, but the state may struggle to meet the current output estimates, he added.
“The soil was dusty, dry,” Lamond said in an interview. “You pick it up and there was no moisture in it.”
The country is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, with about 95% of the Western Australian harvest sent overseas, according to the state’s Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development. Lamond said some farmers had planted more barley than wheat to take advantage of higher prices.
GIWA estimates the overall grain crop will be around 19.3 million tons this season. However, the planting season only concluded in June, and forecasts are likely to change before the harvests starts around late October.
Other GIWA production estimates for 2025-26:
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