Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s most valuable firm by market capitalization, has returned to the spotlight as its share price inches closer to its all-time high. On July 8, 2025, the stock declined 0.4 percent intraday to hit a low of ₹1,534.55, just 4.6 percent away from its historic peak of ₹1,608.95 recorded exactly a year earlier. This comes on the back of a strong recovery rally, with the stock rebounding nearly 38 percent from its 52-week low of ₹1,115.55, touched in April 2025. With RIL’s diversified businesses and renewed interest from top brokerages, investors are once again evaluating the stock’s potential upside.
Brokerage Views Support the Upside Narrative
Brokerages have been largely optimistic about RIL’s prospects, highlighting its aggressive push into next-generation sectors such as new energy and AI infrastructure, alongside robust core businesses in oil-to-chemicals (O2C), telecom, and retail. Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight stance on the stock, setting a price target of ₹1,617, implying an upside of over 5 percent from the stock’s July 8 levels.
Morgan Stanley noted that RIL’s ambitions in the new energy business appear “more transformational and global” than any of its past initiatives. It highlighted the company’s plans to build an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure at its Jamnagar facility, targeting a rollout within two years. The project includes a 1GW data center powered by NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips, suggesting substantial AI capabilities and energy consumption needs. Morgan Stanley estimated that such a facility would require around 678,000 B100 chips. Even partial internal usage, it said, would demand over 135,000 chips, with the facility needing around 1.3GW of round-the-clock power. The brokerage added that RIL’s renewable energy ecosystem could support this demand, potentially making India a data center hub with RIL playing a key enabling role.
Morgan Stanley also expects strong Q1FY26 performance from RIL. It projected 16 percent year-on-year growth in consolidated EBITDA and a 27 percent surge in net profit, driven by stronger margins in global fuel markets, consistent retail revenue growth, and improved telecom subscriber metrics. However, it added that higher depreciation and interest costs from 5G deployment could flatten sequential growth.
Nuvama Sees Solar Trigger Driving Valuations
Domestic brokerage Nuvama Institutional Equities also maintained its bullish stance on RIL, assigning the highest target price on the Street of ₹1801, indicatin gan upsidee potential of over 17 percent
The firm emphasized RIL’s entry into solar manufacturing, particularly the introduction of heterojunction (HJT) solar modules. According to Nuvama’s channel checks, RIL has begun offering these modules in the domestic market even though the commercial rollout of its power generation business is yet to fully materialize.
Nuvama compared RIL’s integrated solar manufacturing facility with existing players such as Waaree Energies and Premier Energies. Given RIL’s scale, the brokerage expects its solar segment to command a significant valuation premium, reminiscent of the valuation rerating post the launch of Jio in 2017. It estimates that RIL’s New Energy business could contribute over 50 percent to its profit after tax (PAT) in the coming years, boosting the valuation of even its traditional O2C business, especially with the company aiming for net-zero emissions by 2035.
Bernstein and Goldman Sachs Join the Bullish Chorus
Global brokerage Bernstein raised its target price for RIL to ₹1,640, a 7 percent upside from today’s low, while maintaining an ‘outperform’ rating. It stated that with store rationalisation near completion and ongoing tariff hikes, Reliance’s growth momentum is expected to strengthen. The scale-up in the new energy vertical further supports a re-rating of the stock.
The brokerage also lauded RIL’s capital discipline, noting that while the company continues to invest across segments, its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio has remained flat through FY25. This, Bernstein said, offers comfort on leverage levels even as the company expands into new businesses.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs added RIL to its APAC Conviction List, placing it alongside Taiwan’s TSMC and China’s Huaqin. Goldman expects RIL’s EBITDA growth to recover to 16 percent in FY26, compared to just 2 percent in FY25. It cited improving refining fundamentals, potential ARPU gains from a Jio tariff hike, and restructuring-led retail growth as key earnings drivers. The brokerage also raised its target price to ₹1,801 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating.
What Could Drive RIL in the Near Term?
Several near-term triggers could determine RIL’s trajectory. An increase in telecom tariffs by Jio could support revenue and margin growth. Additionally, clarity around the listing or demerger of Jio may unlock shareholder value. The continued expansion of RIL’s New Energy vertical—including AI, data centers, solar modules, and green hydrogen—remains central to the long-term valuation narrative. While some volatility in refinery margins is expected due to temporary shutdowns, analysts anticipate normalisation by the second half of FY26.
Stock Performance
RIL has traded largely flat over the past one year, down just 3 percent. However, the trend has improved notably in recent months. The stock rose over 2 percent so far in July, extending its winning streak for a fifth consecutive month. It climbed 5.6 percent in June, 1.1 percent in May, 10.2 percent in April, and 6.2 percent in March. Before that, it dropped 5 percent in February, followed by a 4 percent uptick in January.
Overall, Reliance Industries, just 4 percent shy of its all-time high, continues to command attention with its diversified business structure, ambitious new energy initiatives, and stable financials. With multiple brokerages including Morgan Stanley, Nuvama, Bernstein, and Goldman Sachs raising their price targets and reaffirming buy ratings, market confidence in RIL remains high.
However, with the stock hovering near peak levels, investors may need to weigh current valuations against near-term triggers like Jio tariff hikes or a potential listing event. Nonetheless, for long-term investors seeking exposure to India’s evolving economy, RIL remains a compelling play—backed by a strong track record, leadership in key sectors, and promising new ventures in clean tech and AI.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
