Samvat 2082 was a year of divergence across global and domestic financial markets, with Indian equities lagging several major international benchmarks even as commodities rallied sharply and the rupee weakened against the US dollar. The Nifty 50 declined 2.59% and the Sensex fell 3.35% between Diwali 2025 and Diwali 2026, while the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 managed modest gains of 0.90% and 0.29%, respectively. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei surged 13.08%, South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 23.63% and the FTSE advanced 11.26%, reflecting stronger gains across major global markets.
Sectoral performance on Dalal Street remained sharply divided. Pharma and metal stocks led the rally, with the Nifty Pharma rising 24.77% and Nifty Metal gaining 21.71%, while FMCG, IT and realty stocks weighed on the market. At the individual stock level, BSE emerged as the top Nifty 50 performer with a 52.3% gain, whereas ITC plunged 30.94%, making it the biggest laggard.
The commodities market delivered an equally striking performance. Crude oil surged 54.11%, and copper gained 33.56%, while gold and silver advanced 2.25% and 8.16%, respectively. Adding to the pressure, the Indian rupee depreciated around 7.1% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from approximately ₹87.90 to ₹94.14. The Diwali-to-Diwali comparison captures a year of uneven equity returns, a sharp commodity rally and currency weakness as Indian markets enter Samvat 2083.
According to Nuvama Wealth Research, five potential catalysts could drive a resurgence in the Indian equity market during Samvat 2083.
1. India–US trade deal: A catalyst for FII comeback: A favourable trade agreement between India and the US could boost foreign investor confidence, reduce policy uncertainty and revive foreign institutional investor (FII) flows into Indian equities.
2. Anti-AI trade: India could emerge as a relative beneficiary: A potential global rotation away from expensive AI-linked stocks could benefit relatively under-owned markets such as India, which has limited direct exposure to the AI valuation bubble.
3. Iran deal: Easing geopolitical and crude oil risks: A diplomatic resolution involving Iran could lower geopolitical risk premiums and ease crude oil prices, improving India’s inflation, currency and fiscal outlook.
4. Domestic policy triggers: LTCG relief and rupee stabilisation: Potential rationalisation of long-term capital gains (LTCG) taxation, alongside RBI measures to stabilise the rupee, could strengthen investor confidence and encourage foreign fund inflows.
Can the rally sustain its momentum into Diwali Muhurat Trading amid global AI-driven volatility?
Indian equities head into the coming week with a significantly stronger technical setup following the sharp market rally, with investor focus shifting to the Diwali Muhurat Trading session scheduled for Sunday, 8 November. According to market experts, the sustainability of the uptrend will largely depend on whether the moderation in crude oil prices continues, foreign institutional investor (FII) buying remains sustained beyond potential short-covering and positioning adjustments, and the market absorbs its recent sharp gains without a significant correction.
However, the rapid pace of the rally, elevated momentum indicators and lingering global uncertainties could trigger intermittent profit-booking and periods of consolidation. The ability of the benchmark indices to hold their newly reclaimed levels will remain crucial in determining whether the bullish momentum can continue and support further gains.
Nifty 50: Key support and resistance levels
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the Nifty extended its winning streak to seven consecutive sessions on Friday, gaining 493 points. A long bullish candle on the daily chart signals a decisive breakout above the crucial resistance zone of 24,700–24,800, indicating a change in polarity, he said.
The Nifty ended the week with gains of around 8.58%, or nearly 1,977 points, marking an exceptional weekly performance compared with its moves over the past five years. Shetti noted that the market would also see a shortened Muhurat Trading session on Sunday, 8 November.
According to him, the underlying trend remains positive, with further upside potentially taking the index towards 25,500 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,750.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the Nifty 50 extended its strong upward momentum for the seventh consecutive session, decisively reclaiming the psychological 25,000 mark. The index is now trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), signalling a significant improvement in its technical structure.
He placed immediate resistance at 25,150–25,200, followed by the crucial 25,500 level. A sustained breakout above these levels could extend the rally further.
On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support zone, followed by 24,600. Holding above these levels will be important to sustain the ongoing upward momentum. Ponmudi said the near-term outlook remains bullish, although some cooling in momentum would be healthy after the recent sharp advance.
Sensex: Key support and resistance levels
Ponmudi said the Sensex extended its recovery for the seventh consecutive session, closing sharply higher at around 81,028. The index has moved above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a substantial improvement in its technical structure.
He placed immediate resistance at 81,200–81,300, followed by 82,000. A sustained move above these levels could open the way for further upside.
On the downside, 80,500–80,300 forms the immediate support zone, followed by 80,000–79,700. Holding above the immediate support range will be important to preserve the prevailing positive momentum.
However, Ponmudi cautioned that some consolidation and profit-booking could emerge at higher levels following the sharp weekly advance. While the near-term outlook remains bullish, elevated RSI levels warrant caution against chasing the rally at stretched valuations.
Rupee: Key support and resistance levels
Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, said the rupee weakened by 9 paise to 94.50 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, compared with Thursday’s close of 94.41, before finding some support in the afternoon.
He noted that foreign investors bought Indian equities worth ₹14,975 crore on Thursday, marking the largest single-day inflow of 2026 and taking cumulative inflows over five sessions to ₹35,809 crore. However, these substantial inflows failed to push the rupee meaningfully higher as Brent crude reclaimed the $100-per-barrel mark amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Sharan also pointed to the RBI’s decision to absorb ₹25,000 crore through a reverse repo auction on Friday. He said the move indicated that the central bank could be absorbing excess rupee liquidity as it purchases incoming dollars to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. Consequently, strong equity inflows are no longer translating into a meaningful rupee rally but are instead helping replenish India’s forex buffer.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the USD/INR pair ended the week on a distinctly bearish note, declining approximately 1.1% to settle near 93.89. The move marked a decisive break below the 94.00–94.50 range.
He identified 94.40–94.50 as the immediate resistance zone, followed by a stronger hurdle at 94.90–95.00. A sustained move above these levels would be necessary to signal a reversal in the pair’s near-term weakness.
On the downside, 93.50–93.40 remains the immediate support zone. A decisive break below this range could open the way for a further decline towards the psychologically important 93.00 mark.
Ponmudi said the daily RSI, hovering around 26, indicates deeply oversold conditions, leaving room for a technical rebound even as the broader trend remains weak. The rupee’s sharp appreciation has coincided with a steep correction in crude oil prices, easing concerns over India’s import bill and reducing pressure on the domestic currency.
Crude oil: Key support and resistance levels
Ponmudi said MCX crude oil ended the week on a distinctly bearish note, plunging nearly 15% to settle around ₹8,459. However, prices managed to hold above the ₹8,200– ₹8,100 support zone.
He placed immediate resistance at ₹8,500, followed by a stronger hurdle at ₹8,700– ₹8,800. A sustained move above these levels could ease selling pressure and pave the way for a technical recovery.
On the downside, ₹8,400 is the immediate support, while the ₹8,200– ₹8,100 zone offers the next layer of support. A decisive break below this range could expose prices to further weakness towards ₹7,800– ₹7,700.
Ponmudi noted that the weekly candle reflects one of the sharpest bearish formations on the chart, while daily momentum indicators continue to signal underlying weakness. The steep correction followed a reassessment of geopolitical risks, with hopes of a possible de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections prompting markets to unwind a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium. However, lingering concerns over potential supply disruptions in the region continue to provide some underlying support to prices.
Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Analyst at Choice Broking, said crude oil prices were attempting to regain momentum amid continued geopolitical uncertainty. WTI crude was trading around $91.70 per barrel, Brent near $102.50 per barrel, and MCX crude oil around ₹8,667.
She noted that crude prices had recently come under pressure following the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections, which raised expectations of increased political pressure on the Trump administration to end the month-long conflict with Iran. Hopes of a possible diplomatic resolution have eased some of the geopolitical risk premium in the market.
Going forward, More expects crude oil prices to remain sensitive to developments in US-Iran negotiations, potential regional supply disruptions and broader geopolitical conditions.
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