Gold and silver prices have taken a sharp knock in October, offering some relief to buyers ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali 2026.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures fell around 7% during the month, while silver futures plunged nearly 20% — almost three times gold’s decline. The correction has brought prices well below their January 2026 record highs, raising a familiar festive-season question: Is this the right time to buy precious metals, or could prices fall further?
Analysts say the sell-off reflects a combination of rising interest-rate concerns, elevated crude oil prices and pressure across global commodity markets. While lower prices may offer an opportunity for those planning festive or wedding purchases, experts caution that the trend remains weak. Their advice is to avoid investing the entire amount at once and instead accumulate in phases, with greater caution around silver because of its sharper price swings.
MCX gold and silver futures rebounded on Monday, 2 November, recovering from the sharp sell-off towards the end of October as global bullion markets stabilised ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali. December gold futures traded around ₹1,39,065- ₹1,39,179 per 10 grams, gaining around 0.23%-0.42% from the previous close.
Silver outperformed gold, rising over 1.3% to nearly 2%, with MCX futures trading around ₹1,81,611- ₹1,82,701 per kg.
Why are gold and silver prices falling?
Gaurav Arora, Head of Research at SAHI, said expectations of higher US interest rates have added pressure on gold. The US Federal Reserve held rates in the 3.75%-4% range in October, but two members voted for a rate hike, while markets have begun pricing in the possibility of another increase in December.
Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income, making it less attractive compared with yield-bearing assets. Elevated crude oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and keeping expectations of further monetary tightening alive, Arora said.
The correction has been particularly steep in silver. MCX gold declined around 7% in October, while silver dropped nearly 20%. In dollar terms, gold is around 28% below its January record, while silver is nearly 50% below its peak. On a calendar-year basis, gold is down around 10% and silver about 19%.
Both metals gained in August but have declined for two consecutive months since then. Silver’s sharper fall reflects its higher volatility and its dependence on industrial demand, in addition to its role as a precious metal and safe-haven asset.
Key gold and silver levels to watch
Arora said MCX gold futures have witnessed a sustained decline over the past month, with ₹1,38,250 per 10 grams emerging as an immediate support level. A break below this mark could trigger another round of selling.
For silver, which tends to experience wider price swings, ₹1,78,800 per kg is the immediate support level, he said.
With the broader trend still weak despite the correction, Arora recommends buying in two or three instalments around Dhanteras rather than making a lump-sum purchase. He also advises keeping silver’s allocation smaller than gold’s because of its higher volatility.
Is the correction a buying opportunity?
Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, believes sharp corrections in precious metals can create opportunities for long-term accumulators.
She pointed to previous episodes when liquidity-driven sell-offs were followed by strong physical demand. During the 1970s, gold rose from below $40 an ounce in 1970 to nearly $850 by January 1980. During the global financial crisis in 2008, gold initially fell to around $700 an ounce amid forced liquidations, before rallying to $1,917 by August 2011.
A similar pattern emerged during the March 2020 pandemic sell-off. Gold dropped to around $1,472 an ounce amid a scramble for liquidity, but recovered sharply as investors increased their physical and exchange-traded fund holdings.
Bharti said such episodes show how corrections triggered by liquidity pressures can attract buyers looking to accumulate precious metals. For Indian investors, she sees the recent decline as a potential accumulation opportunity, with domestic gold prices around ₹1.38 lakh per 10 grams.
She expects domestic gold prices could move towards ₹1.65 lakh- ₹1.80 lakh per 10 grams by 2027, supported by central-bank buying, currency movements and gold’s role as an inflation hedge. However, this remains a projection and not a guaranteed price outcome.
What should buyers do this Dhanteras?
Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Analyst at Choice Broking, said the correction from January’s highs has brought some relief to buyers ahead of the festive and wedding season. With 24-carat gold trading around ₹1.38 lakh- ₹1.40 lakh per 10 grams and silver near ₹1.98 lakh- ₹2 lakh per kg, the lower prices could benefit consumers planning purchases.
However, More cautioned that the correction should not be mistaken for a confirmed market bottom. She recommends staggered buying over the coming weeks or months instead of deploying the entire investment allocation at current levels.
Gold continues to have structural support from central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and its role as a portfolio diversifier, while silver could benefit from its industrial demand outlook. But silver’s greater volatility warrants a more measured allocation, she said.
More also advised buyers to distinguish between jewellery purchases and investments. Those buying jewellery should opt for BIS-hallmarked products and compare the final bill, including making charges, wastage, GST and buyback terms. Investors seeking exposure to precious metals can also consider gold ETFs or digital silver, depending on their investment goals.
The broad takeaway: Dhanteras could offer an opportunity for planned purchases after October’s sharp correction, but experts favour disciplined, staggered accumulation over trying to time the bottom. Gold may offer relatively greater stability, while silver’s steeper fall also comes with higher risk.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
