Stock Market Today: The Sensex and Nifty 50 opened lower on Thursday, October 22, extending their losing streak to a third consecutive session as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher and revived concerns over inflation. With traders also navigating global technology stock volatility, the Sensex expiry session could see heightened swings around crucial technical levels.
At 9:15 am, the Sensex fell 0.5% to 73,343.3, while the Nifty 50 declined 0.54% to 22,687.75. Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $110.6 per barrel after attacks by Yemen’s Houthis in Saudi Arabia prompted the US to order some diplomats and their families to leave its missions in the kingdom.
Brent crude has surged more than 80% this year amid disruptions to Persian Gulf oil flows caused by the US-Iran war. Higher crude prices pose a significant risk to India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, by potentially increasing inflationary pressures and corporate costs.
Asian equities also weakened as mixed earnings from major US technology companies renewed concerns about the sustainability of artificial intelligence-related investments. South Korea’s Kospi fell around 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined nearly 1%, adding to the cautious global backdrop for Indian equities.
The fall in Indian equities came on Sensex weekly expiry day, a session that can see heightened volatility as traders adjust or close their index derivatives positions. Sensex weekly expiry is the day when weekly Sensex derivatives contracts, such as futures and options, expire and are settled.
According to V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, the recent correction reflected a shift towards large-cap stocks after a period in which liquidity had supported valuations in mid- and small-caps.
“Strong external headwinds in the form of elevated crude prices and high US bond yields are emboldening bears to build short positions in the market. This is the reason why the market is declining even on days of positive institutional- FII and DII- buying, like yesterday.”
Vijayakumar said the valuation gap between large-caps and smaller companies was unlikely to persist indefinitely. He favoured a strategy of shifting towards fairly valued large-cap stocks, arguing that investors could benefit from this rotation over time.
Sensex expiry prediction today: Key support and resistance levels to watch
The Sensex’s immediate direction will depend on whether buyers can defend the 73,200–73,500 support zone or whether continued selling pushes the index towards lower levels. On the upside, a sustained recovery above 74,300–74,500 could improve sentiment, although elevated crude prices and global uncertainty may limit gains.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Neo, said the index’s bearish daily candle and intraday lower-top formation pointed to a negative near-term technical setup.
“For day traders, the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), along with 73700 and 73500, would act as key support zones. If the market sustains above these levels, it could move towards 74000-74500. Conversely, selling pressure is likely to increase below 73500.”
Chouhan identified 73,000–72,800 as the next downside zone if the Sensex breaks below 73,500. He recommended level-based trading given the prevailing volatility, with traders watching price action around support and resistance rather than taking aggressive directional positions.
Meanwhile, Sachin Gupta, Vice President of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, also viewed the index as range-bound, with immediate support at 73,200–73,500 and resistance at 74,300–74,500.
“The options data indicates that 73,300 PE has the highest open interest on the lower side, followed by 73,500 PE, suggesting potential support from put writers. On the higher side, 74,000 CE holds the highest open interest, followed by 74,500 CE.”
Gupta noted that the put-call ratio (PCR) stood at 0.95, indicating a broadly balanced but slightly cautious derivatives setup. The concentration of put open interest around 73,300–73,500 and call open interest around 74,000–74,500 makes these levels important for determining the next move.
A sustained break above 74,500 could improve the prospects of a recovery, while a fall below 73,200 may invite further selling. Until either boundary is decisively breached, the Sensex is likely to remain range-bound.
Sensex expiry today: What should traders watch?
The 73,200–73,500 support band and 74,300–74,500 resistance zone will be crucial. With crude oil above $110 per barrel and global equities under pressure, traders may prefer a cautious, level-based approach while waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
