(Bloomberg) — European natural gas retreated sharply after hitting €90 for the first time in almost four years, with some traders taking profits from the recent rally.
Benchmark Dutch futures slid as much as 5.3% in the later part of the session, erasing an earlier gain to the highest level since late 2022. Oil also fell, pushed down by an unconfirmed report that Qatar and Pakistan had issued a fresh proposal to revive negotiations to bring an end to the Iran war.
Prices are still more than double the levels before the conflict erupted as Europe’s low gas inventories and the continued loss of Middle Eastern supplies keep the region vulnerable heading into winter.
“We are seeing a bit of a correction after the €90 ceiling was reached,” said Rabobank senior energy strategist Florence Schmit. “But I think we have potential to go above that level again in the next week.”
Europe may have to pay up to attract enough fuel cargoes this winter, with liquefied natural gas demand from Asia setting the stage for more intense bidding wars when colder weather sets in. The region’s gas-storage sites are now about 75% full, the lowest for the season in records going back to 2009. The situation is even more acute in Germany, the region’s biggest economy, where levels are just over 61%.
European gas prices remain well below the peaks of the last energy crisis, but the latest surge is piling pressure on consumers and industry. Governments have so far resisted a return to costly price caps and tax cuts, with stretched budgets and high borrowing costs leaving little appetite for another round of energy support.
Mild weather this month has given European energy companies some breathing room to add more fuel into storage at a faster-than-normal pace for October. Yet, traders remain on high alert. Gas exports from the Persian Gulf, which accounted for about a fifth of global LNG last year, remain disrupted by the war, with no recovery in sight. Asian LNG prices also jumped to the highest since 2022.
The geopolitical outlook remains uncertain, with Qatar saying Tuesday that efforts to resolve the crisis between the US and Iran are ongoing and have not been interrupted. That comes after attacks on oil and gas vessels have intensified recently, adding to concern over how quickly gas shipments from the Middle East could recover. Earlier this week, Iran said it has “no choice” but to assert control over the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded 4.2% lower at €84.32 a megawatt-hour as of 5:06 p.m. in Amsterdam. They rose as high as €90.24 earlier Tuesday.
–With assistance from Sing Yee Ong, Eamon Akil Farhat and Alex Longley.
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