(Bloomberg) — Gold held a decline as conflicting signals on efforts to end the Iran war clouded the outlook for inflation and the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates.
Bullion was trading at around $4,115 an ounce, after falling more than 1% since the start of the week. Oil was steady after easing from a five-month high on Tuesday after a diplomat said reports that an agreement to end the conflict was close were inaccurate.
Gold has fallen by about a fifth since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, pushing energy prices higher and fueling inflation concerns. Higher borrowing costs are a headwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
Long-term Treasuries rose Tuesday on oil’s pullback and evidence of a softening US economy. Latest data showed September housing starts fell, while pending home sales were at a record low.
Traders trying to anticipate the Fed’s next move in its battle to keep inflation in check have few other fresh clues ahead of the central bank’s meeting next week. Chair Kevin Warsh did nothing to dispel expectations it will hold interest rates steady in a speech on Friday ahead of a communications blackout. The probability of a quarter-point hike sits at less than one-in-six.
Still, inflation is well above the central bank’s 2% target, and traders see around an 85% probability of another rate increase later in the year.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,117.83 an ounce at 8:08 a.m. in Singapore, while silver was down 0.1% at $57.88. Platinum and palladium also edged lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was little changed after declining 0.2% in the previous session.
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