(Updates with closing prices)
NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) – Arabica coffee futures on ICE rallied to a one-month high on Friday as market participants grew nervous that critically low exchange stocks will not be replenished as soon as previously expected.
* Arabica coffee settled up 10.8 cents, or 3.7%, at $3.056 per lb. It earlier hit a one-month high of $3.1130.
* ICE-certified stocks were last at 238,976 bags, not far off last month’s 27-year-low of 217,646 bags.
* Market participants are growing nervous that supplies from top grower Brazil will not arrive at ICE warehouses ahead of the December contract expiry, leaving stocks critically low, dealers said.
* Coffee is also being boosted by concerns that the El Nino weather event will curb top grower Brazil’s output next year, and by the recent strength of Brazil’s real currency.
* Robusta coffee settled up $41, or 1.2%, at $3,405 a ton.
* The harvest in top grower Vietnam is getting underway and industry participants expect output will be roughly steady versus last year, though El Nino conditions are set to hurt the 2027/28 crop.
* London cocoa settled down £134, or 3%, at £4,356 per ton, after setting a 1-1/2-month high of £4,640 on Wednesday.
* Cocoa grind data in key processing regions around the world rose a greater-than-expected 14.3% in the third quarter as demand recovered further from the 2025 slump, data showed.
* “It seems that demand for cocoa has recovered from the slump that followed the massive price rise in 2024,” said Commerzbank.
* New York cocoa settled down $186, or 3.2%, at $5,645 a ton, having set a one-month peak on Wednesday.
* Raw sugar fell 0.28 cents, or 1.3%, to 20.85 cents per lb, having hit a 19-month peak of 21.29 on Wednesday.
* Sugar is being driven by excess El Nino-linked rains in top grower Brazil, which slowed production in September and reduced the sucrose in the cane.
* Brazil said on Wednesday sugar production in its center-south region fell 6% in the second half of September to 2.86 million tons.
* Europe, meanwhile, suffered a severe drought this summer that damaged the beet crop, while No. 2 grower India has been hit by El Nino-linked dryness.
* White sugar fell $6.20, or 1.1%, to $554.90 a ton.
(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
