Q2 Preview: Four major private sector lenders — HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Yes Bank — are set to announce their September-quarter earnings tomorrow, Saturday, October 17, with investors looking for clues on deposit mobilisation, net interest margins (NIMs), loan growth and asset quality.
While strong credit growth and foreign currency non-resident (FCNR-B) deposit inflows are expected to support business expansion, margin pressure could limit earnings growth.
Analysts expect HDFC Bank to report relatively modest profit growth, while ICICI Bank is likely to deliver stronger earnings despite a sequential decline. Axis Bank’s outlook reflects robust loan growth but contracting margins, whereas Yes Bank’s results will be closely watched amid uncertainty surrounding the AT-1 bond write-down ruling. Here is what analysts expect from each lender.
HDFC Bank: NIM trajectory and management transition in focus
HDFC Bank will announce its Q2FY27 results on Saturday, October 17. Its earnings call is scheduled for 4 pm IST.
HDFC Bank’s Q2FY27 earnings will be closely watched for signs of stability in its margins and asset quality, as well as the impact of FCNR-B deposit mobilisation. The results will also come at a key leadership transition, with investors looking for clues on the bank’s priorities under its incoming management.
Kotak Institutional Equities expects HDFC Bank to report a 4.7% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹19,510 crore in Q2FY27. Net interest income (NII) is expected to rise 7.7% year-on-year and 1.4% sequentially to ₹33,987.8 crore.
The brokerage expects the gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to remain stable, with slippages at 1.2% of loans. It highlighted the bank’s margin trajectory, the impact of FCNR deposits and execution under the new management as key factors to watch.
“We expect gross NPL ratio to be stable with slippages at 1.2% of loans. Near-term focus would be the progress of NIM, impact of FCNR deposits and execution under the new management,” Kotak Institutional Equities said.
The quarter is also significant as it is expected to be the final earnings report under managing director and chief executive officer Sashidhar Jagdishan, whose tenure ends on October 26. Anup Bagchi is set to replace him. Investors will watch management commentary on business priorities, profitability and execution under the incoming leadership.
ICICI Bank: Earnings growth faces pressure from lower margins
ICICI Bank will announce its Q2FY27 results on Saturday, October 17. Its media call is scheduled for 4 pm IST, followed by the analyst and investor call at 5 pm IST.
ICICI Bank is expected to report double-digit year-on-year profit growth in the September quarter, supported by higher net interest income and non-interest income. However, a sequential contraction in margins and the outlook for unsecured lending and credit costs will remain key monitorables for investors.
Axis Securities expects ICICI Bank’s NII to grow 16% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter to ₹24,973 crore in Q2FY27. Non-interest income is projected to increase 13.4% year-on-year to ₹8,587 crore, while pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is expected to rise 18.1% year-on-year to ₹20,428 crore.
PAT is estimated at ₹14,138 crore, up 14.4% year-on-year but down 4.5% sequentially. NIM is expected to contract by around 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter. However, contained operating expenses and benign credit costs could support profitability. Investors will also monitor provisions for standard assets, which could increase following FCNR-B deposit mobilisation.
Axis Bank: FCNR-B mobilisation and deposit mix under scrutiny
Axis Bank will announce its Q2FY27 results on Saturday, October 17. Its earnings call is scheduled for 6:20 pm IST.
Axis Bank’s strong loan and deposit growth will be a key feature of its Q2FY27 business performance, but investors will assess whether this expansion translates into sustained earnings growth. Margin compression, a declining CASA ratio and the deployment of FCNR-B deposits will be important factors to watch.
JM Financial expects Axis Bank’s PAT to increase 32.9% year-on-year but decline 4.9% quarter-on-quarter to ₹6,766.4 crore in Q2FY27. NII is projected to grow 6.2% year-on-year while declining 0.3% sequentially to ₹14,601.2 crore.
JM Financial expects NIM to decline to 3.1%, compared with 3.3% in the previous quarter and 3.5% a year earlier.
JM Financial also expects margin pressure across large FCNR-B mobilisers. “We expect NIMs to contract 14–18bps QoQ for ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Bank (all large FCNR-B mobilisers), ~5bps for HDFC Bank and ~3bps for SBI,” the brokerage said.
Yes Bank: Strong loan growth and Supreme Court ruling in focus
Yes Bank will announce its Q2FY27 results on Saturday, October 17. Its earnings call timing was not available in the details provided.
Yes Bank’s September-quarter earnings will be assessed against strong loan and deposit growth, alongside the outlook for margins and profitability. Investors will also track developments following the Supreme Court verdict on the ₹8,415 crore AT-1 bond write-down and any implications for the bank’s capital position and liabilities.
JM Financial expects Yes Bank to report PAT of ₹899.5 crore in Q2FY27, up 37.4% year-on-year but down 16% quarter-on-quarter. NII is estimated to rise 22.5% year-on-year and 1.1% sequentially to ₹2,817.5 crore.
JM Financial expects NIM to be 2.7%, below 2.8% in the previous quarter but above 2.6% a year earlier. Credit cost is projected at 0.5%, against 0.6% in Q1FY27 and 0.7% in Q2FY26. RoA is estimated at 0.8%, compared with 0.9% in the preceding quarter and 0.6% a year earlier.
The brokerage expects continued balance-sheet expansion to support NII growth across its coverage universe. “Strong balance sheet growth should support NII growth of ~12% YoY for our coverage universe in Q2FY27 (Q1FY27: ~11% YoY),” JM Financial said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
