Stock to buy today | Jefferies India stock recommendations: Adani Green Energy shares are among those rare stocks that have delivered a whopping return to their shareholders despite sell-off stress in the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Sensex and Bank Nifty. This Gautam Adani-owned stock has risen 16% over the past six months and around 23%YTD. Global investment bank Jefferies sees more upside in the Adani Green Energy share price. The latest Jefferies India report has predicted 35% upside, with an Adani Green Energy share price target of ₹1,695. Adani Green Energy’s share price today is oscillating around ₹1,260.
Why is Jefferies bullish on Adani Green Energy shares?
On why Jefferies is bullish on this Gautam Adani-owned stock, the global investment bank said, “Adani Green’s (AGEL) stock price has corrected 22% from its peak and now trades at 20x 1Y forward EBITDA, which appears attractive given its 30% FY26-30E EBITDA CAGR. We see industry-level triggers for strong power demand and improved utilisation driven by higher temperatures. These should largely offset potential higher interest costs from RBI rate hikes and ease investor concerns.”
El-Nino potential in 2027 to fuel demand
The global investment bank believes recent news reports suggest that El Niño could persist into CY27, implying the CY26 peak deficit could recur. Coal stocks are at critical levels of less than 7 days. State Electricity Boards (SEBs) are already discussing locking in 2027 power as shortages could reappear with rising temperatures. AGEL is swiftly ramping up its Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) segment. It has an installed BESS capacity of 6.6 GWh with plans of 10 GWh+ end FY27E. This is likely to accelerate given the strong demand for power. Also, our 6.5-6.8 GW FY28E-30E annual generation capacity addition could see upside.
Jefferies India report said that Aani Green Energy’s net debt-to-EBITDA should decline to 7.1x by FY30E vs 8.9x in FY26, on our capacity assumption of 44 GW. Promoter group subscribed to 63 mn warrants in 2024 at Rs1,480.75/sh and planned an equity investment of Rs93.5 bn in AGEL. 25% was paid in 2024, and the balance was infused in Apr-July 2025. Largely, AGEL’s installed capacity is tied up under long-term PPAs, which provide steady cash flow visibility and lend confidence in B/S improvement.
Adani Green Energy share price target
Giving a ‘buy’ tag to Adani Green Energy shares, the Jefferies India report said, that the recent RBI rate hike has raised some concerns around impact on earnings, multiple offsetting factors, as highlighted above, should help cushion the impact and limit the earnings drag relative to what the headline rate increase may imply. With the 22% stock correction from its peak, broadly in line with the sector, it is now trading at a reasonable 20x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA.
“We continue to see risk-reward as attractive and retain our BUY rating. Our Rs1,695 PT values the company at 20x EV/EBITDA at Sept 28E, which is a premium to JSW Energy’s (JSW IN, Rs462, Buy) 14x, given its higher growth and pure-renewable assets. Risks: 1) execution delays, especially at Khavda; and 2) aggressive bidding,” the Jefferies India report concluded.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
