RBI MPC Meeting October 2026: As major global central banks have shifted towards monetary tightening amid rising inflationary pressures, attention has now shifted towards India’s central bank policy decision this week, with investors closely watching how the central bank will respond to rising inflation risks.
The October MPC meeting takes place against a backdrop of growing macroeconomic challenges, as the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has now entered its eighth month, has already sent inflation shocks across major economies, with India being impacted heavily given its heavy reliance on energy imports.
Since the RBI’s August policy, crude prices have surged 28%, while India’s 10-year bond yield has risen 44 basis points to a 29-month high of 7.12%.
Domestic conditions are also turning unfavourable, as lower rainfall due to El Niño is impacting the rural economy. This is significant given that the agriculture sector accounts for about 18% of the Indian economy and employs 43% of the workforce.
In the RBI’s meeting minutes for the August 3–5 policy, the central bank said El Niño’s impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall continues to remain a risk, although proactive supply management and adequate stocks of foodgrains could provide buffers.
It said global oil prices have remained volatile, with sharp two-way movements triggered by geopolitical developments, blurring the near-term outlook.
Although the central bank said that generalized inflation pressures continue to remain modest so far, the risks of higher food, fuel and other input prices translating into a broad-based increase in inflation persist.
RBI MPC meeting: Date and time
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from October 5 to 7 to review economic conditions and determine the next course of monetary policy. The MPC’s decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, October 7.
The central bank will unveil its policy decision at 10:00 a.m. on October 7, followed by a press conference by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra at 12:00 p.m. later that day.
RBI MPC meeting: Where to watch RBI’s announcement?
The RBI Governor’s policy announcement will be streamed live on the RBI’s official YouTube channel starting at 10:00 a.m. Viewers can also watch the governor’s media address on the same platform.
You can also track live updates on the RBI announcement with Mint.
What is to be expected from the upcoming RBI MPC announcement?
The RBI is expected to raise interest rates this week for the first time since February 2023, as a sharp shift in the global rate environment and rising inflation risks push the central bank towards monetary tightening.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may raise the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on October 7, according to nine of 10 economists surveyed by Mint, with only one respondent expecting a pause.
All respondents expect the rate-setting panel to retain its neutral stance, signalling that the central bank wants to keep its options open rather than commit to a prolonged hiking cycle.
If the RBI increases the rate at the upcoming policy meeting, it will mark the first hike in more than three years. The last repo rate hike was in February 2023, when the RBI raised the rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. It then kept the rate unchanged through 2023–24 before beginning its rate-cut cycle in 2025. Currently, the RBI’s policy repo rate stands at 5.25%.
Global central banks turn hawkish as inflation risks rise
The ECB was the first major central bank to take action against rising inflation, raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September and taking its deposit rate to 2.50%, as inflation risks remained elevated. The US Federal Reserve followed with a 25-basis-point rate hike, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 decision.
This was the first-rate hike since July 2023, while another hike before the end of 2026 remains under consideration. The Bank of England held the bank rate at 3.75% on September 17, but the 6–3 vote was notably hawkish, with three MPC members preferring a 25-basis-point hike to 4.0%.
The latest addition to the global tightening cycle was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which lifted its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29, 2026. This marked its fourth-rate increase of the year and took the cash rate to a 15-year high.
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