BSE share price slumped nearly 4% on Wednesday, 30 September, as the stock began trading on the flagship Nifty 50 index for the first time.
As part of the NSE’s twice-a-year index rebalancing, implemented on Wednesday, the BSE replaced IT giant Wipro in the Nifty 50 index. As a result of this change, Wipro has been shifted to the Nifty Next 50 index.
The Nifty 50 index rebalancing process was conducted on Tuesday, 29 September, in line with the monthly derivatives expiration.
BSE share price today opened at ₹3,138.90 apiece on the NSE, the stock touched an intraday high of ₹3,149, and an intraday low of ₹3,075 per share.
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at My Advisor Alpha, said BSE is trading more than 2.5% lower and remains below all key moving averages, indicating near-term weakness. He added that the stock could remain under pressure until it decisively crosses ₹3,300, while ₹2,950 is the next key support level.
Brokerages differ on BSE’s growth outlook and valuation
Brokerages have offered divergent views on BSE, with Macquarie remaining positive on the exchange’s long-term growth prospects, while Bernstein and Nuvama Institutional Equities have flagged moderating growth and near-term earnings risks.
Macquarie maintained an Outperform view with a target price of ₹4,000, describing BSE as a challenger in a market expected to grow at a 12% CAGR. The brokerage expects BSE to deliver 16% revenue growth between FY26 and FY30, with margins moving towards 70%. While it sees Clearing and Settlement (CAS) as a near-term drag, Macquarie said the potential contribution from SOR, P/N and self-clearing remains unpriced. It values BSE at 40x FY29E EPS, citing its growth, margins, return on equity and cash-generation potential.
In contrast, Bernstein took a more cautious view, calling BSE a “contra-call” and arguing that the strongest phase of growth may have passed. The brokerage noted that BSE benefited from strong market volumes and market-share gains during FY23–FY26, resulting in a 120% EPS CAGR. However, it expects volume growth to moderate in FY27, with earnings growth normalising to the mid-teens in FY28–FY29 as market volumes slow and market-share gains peak. Bernstein values BSE at around 32x FY28 EPS and expects potential earnings cuts to put pressure on valuations.
Nuvama Institutional Equities also turned more cautious, citing the recovery in India VIX as a key swing factor for BSE’s premium per contract and average daily premium turnover (ADPTV). It said faster adoption of CAS, deeper closing-auction liquidity, regulatory changes to CAS mechanics and stronger non-expiry participation could provide upside to its estimates.
However, Nuvama has lowered its FY27 ADPTV estimate to around ₹186 billion, from ₹241 billion earlier, and cut its FY27/FY28 EPS estimates by 6.3%/15%. It also expects consensus ADPTV estimates of ₹285 billion and ₹333 billion for FY27/FY28 to potentially be reset after Q2FY27 earnings.
The brokerage consequently cut its target price to ₹3,240 from ₹4,090 and downgraded BSE to ‘Hold’, valuing the exchange at 40x September 2027E PE, along with its 15% stake in CDSL.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
