A surging oil market, historic highs in US yields, and a regulatory shake-up in domestic insurance combined to trigger a broad market sell-off on Thursday, with Indian equities faring among the worst in Asia.
Brent crude oil crossed $106 a barrel and US treasury yields rose to their highest in nearly 20 years, while a proposed insurance overhaul cast a cloud over the distribution incomes of Indian banks. Financial services account for 36.47% of the Nifty’s weight, making the sector a key driver of the benchmark.
The Nifty and Sensex fell 1.6% and 1.7% respectively, hitting their lowest levels since 6 April and 8 June. The India Vix jumped nearly 23% as volatility shot up. In other markets, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%, while the CAC 40, DAX, Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined 0.4%, 0.2%, 1.1% and 0.8%.
Financial woes
Financial services bore the brunt of the sell-off in India, a day after the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) moved to lower customer acquisition costs, revamp distributor commissions, enforce expense limits and streamline intermediary categories. While aimed at curbing mis-selling and lowering costs for policyholders, industry executives cautioned the proposed caps could disrupt distribution networks, squeeze lower-ticket products and narrow consumer choice.
The sector reeled on Thursday—the Nifty Financial Services ex-Bank index slumped 4.3%, followed by the Nifty Mid-small Financial Services index, which fell 4.4%. Nifty Private Bank declined 2.2%, while the Nifty Bank index shed 2%. PB Fintech Ltd and Turtlemint Fintech Solutions Ltd which operate in the insurance distribution space tanked, losing 36% and 20% respectively.
“The insurance distribution business is an important revenue stream for banks and NBFCs and the Irdai’s consultation paper, if implemented, surely will impact the projections for most of them in the near term,” said Aniruddha Sarkar, co-founder and chief investment officer of Equinova Investment Managers, a boutique PMS and AIF investment firm managing over $100 million in assets.
He added FPI buying depends on earnings recovery in large-cap stocks. “Since foreign institutional investors primarily hold large-cap stocks, pressure on banks from the latest insurance-related developments “could keep foreign investors cautious, making large FII inflows before January unlikely,” he said.
Global worries
Oil prices that had stabilized during a brief ceasefire between Iran and the US have gained, as attacks resumed and the Houthis in Yemen blocked vital supply routes.
“Rising oil prices because of uncertainty around middle east crisis, US midterm polls outcome uncertainty and the likelihood of interest rates staying higher, could keep investor sentiment weak for both domestic and FPI” Sarkar said.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.1%, its highest level since July 2007, after the stronger-than expected US manufacturing data revived concerns that persistent inflation will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Midcaps took a harder knock than the broader market, with the Nifty Midcap 100 sliding 2.3%. The Nifty Smallcap fell 1.4%, against the Nifty’s 1.6% fall.
According to Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, “the combination of rising global bond yields, elevated crude prices, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific concerns has further weakened market sentiment”.
Chouhan, who does not believe the current sell-off could lead to a bigger derating of Indian equities, sees the rupee weakening towards 96 a dollar a concern. However, he said timely government measures and the initiation of FCNR deposits have helped contain further depreciation, providing some stability.
Reforms undertaken last year, particularly GST rate rationalization and income-tax benefits for the middle class, have supported domestic consumption and corporate earnings in Q4 FY2026 and Q1 FY2027. Given the earnings trajectory and current valuations, these factors should help limit the downside, Chouhan said.
“In fact, from a medium- to long-term perspective, we believe investors should continue to look for opportunities to invest in the market, particularly during periods of meaningful corrections.”
Smid space
A 14 September note by BofA Global Research said that with Smid-cap indices outperforming the Nifty by 13-20% year to date, their valuation premium has narrowed to 43% from a peak of 53%. “Although we continue to see select opportunities within Smid-caps, we reverse our preference for SMIDs & suggest switching to large caps, in line with our view that investors would have to stay nimble to generate outperformance.”
BofA said five of the eight risks it had flagged have either played out or been priced in. While the three remaining risks could pose a 7% downside for the Nifty in its bear case, its base case sees the index at 26,200 by December 2026. It added that Fed hikes and lumpy primary issuances could peak by October, potentially supporting a market recovery from November.
