Indian stock market news: Exactly two years ago, on 24th September 2026, the key benchmark index, the Sensex, crossed the 85,000 mark for the first time ever. However, the bull run didn’t end on Dalal Street, and on 1st December 2025, the Sensex climbed to a new peak of 86,159. Since then, the 30-stock index and other Indian stock market indices have remained under pressure from selling. Sensex today is reeling below the 75,000 mark, more than 11,000 points below the record high of 86,159.
According to the stock market experts, a major reason for the Sensex crashing over 11,000 points from its record highs is the outbreak of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026. This led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering economic uncertainties, including pressure on fiscal deficits, soaring inflation, and a decline in US dollar reserves worldwide. Due to the rapid outflow of USD, portfolio investment got hit exponentially.
Here we list out the three major triggers that may bring back the Indian stock market mojo:
Trend reversal in FII data
FPIs and FIIs are continuously selling in the Indian markets. Earlier, they were selling in India and buying in South Korea amid the AI buzz. Now, with the AI-slowdown buzz around, FIIs remain unconvinced about the Indian stock market, despite India’s GDP in Q1FY27 coming in at a promising 7.80%.
“The Indian stock market is waiting for a trend reversal in the FPI and FIIs trade pattern. They have been under doubt over the Indian markets and some other emerging markets about their returns for more than one year. Recently, the Indian government received US dollar inflows from NRIs through the FCNR bonds. However, this is a short-term solution, which smart investors like FIIs and FPIs understand very well. They are waiting for some big reforms from the Indian government to make the Indian portfolio investment lucrative,” said Sandeep Pandey, Founder of Basav Capital.
US government to fix the Treasury yield
The market estimates that soaring US Treasury yields would exacerbate the US debt crisis, and the US administration would be forced to fix or cap US bond yields.
A few days ago, Christopher Wood of Jefferies hit the headlines by pointing towards this possibility, saying, “The evidence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent trying to manipulate the US bond yields between 5% to 6% are already visible. If the US bond yield fails to succumb to this manipulation, then the US government would try to fix the US Treasury yields.”
On how the US government’s move to fix the US Treasury yields would be good news for the Sensex, Nifty and other indices of the Indian stock market, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “If the US government decides to fix the US Treasury yields, it would put the US dollar under pressure, forcing investors to look at other a ssets like equities, gold, etc. As bond yields are lowered in the US, investors will look to emerging equity markets, which are in the oversold zone. As the Indian stock market has been under pressure for a long time, this is one of the major triggers that Dalal Street investors are eagerly awaiting.”
Re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz
In the aftermath of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, the smooth passage of the oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. The deadlock has existed since the outbreak of the US-Iran war. This has created various economic problems for even those nations that are not involved in this war. Soaring crude oil prices have raised various economic concerns, including a widening of the fiscal deficit, rising inflation, and pressure on dollar reserves.
Speaking on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy, Sandeep Pandey of Basav Capital said, “Look, the market can discount the impact of a war. We have seen this after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. That war is still on, but the market has completely discounted that after a severe beating. So, the market doesn’t want any resolution in the US-Iran war, but it wants a solution to the Strait of Hormuz, which is damaging the economy of those countries, which has nothing to do with this war.”
Expecting the Strait of Hormuz deadlock to be resolved soon, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said, “The US government can’t afford to continue the war, as the mid-term polls are fast-approaching. The Iranian leadership is also aware of this. Tehran is aware that they have an advantage to bargain by sitting on the table with the US leadership before the mid-term polls. Once the polls are over, Iran will lose that bargaining power. So, the market has all reasons to expect a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz closure.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
