Indian equity benchmarks bounced sharply on Tuesday, September 15, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining as much as 0.9%, despite elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields. The recovery came ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while gains in heavyweight HDFC Bank provided additional support. The session was also significant for traders as it coincided with Nifty expiry.
The Sensex climbed 655 points, or 0.9%, to 75,436.44, its intraday high, while the Nifty advanced 195 points, or 0.83%, to 23,592.85. Indian markets had remained closed on Monday, September 14, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi.
HDFC Bank was among the key drivers of the gains, rising more than 2%. The country’s largest private lender and a Nifty heavyweight came into focus after submitting the names of two candidates to the Reserve Bank of India for the CEO position, formally initiating the succession process for Sashidhar Jagdishan, who is due to retire later this year.
“A positive for the Indian market is that there is clarity emerging on the choice of HDFC Bank MD and CEO. A quick acceptance of the name of the successor by the RBI can influence the benchmark index significantly. The continuing boom in the IPO market and outperformance of the broader market are positives,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
The market advance came on Nifty expiry day, when outstanding index derivative contracts reach expiry and traders may close, roll over or settle positions. Such activity can increase trading volumes and trigger sharper intraday movements, making support and resistance levels particularly important for short-term traders.
Triggers ahead
However, elevated oil prices remained a concern. Brent crude traded near $107 in Asian trading as fears persisted that the Middle East conflict could spread and threaten global energy supplies. Higher crude prices are particularly negative for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer.
US bond yields added another layer of pressure. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield touched the psychologically important 5% level on Monday for the first time since October 2023. Expectations of renewed US monetary tightening have also weighed on sentiment, alongside aggressive institutional selling.
“Global equity markets will be under pressure from the U.S. 10-year yield hitting the psychological 5% mark. The macro scenario will continue to be under pressure from the rising crude price. Brent crude at $107 will continue to weigh on markets,” stated Vijayakumar.
He added that the damage to the Saudi East-West oil pipeline from the Houthi attack would continue to pressure global markets. He added that these macro concerns would be difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore at its FOMC meeting tomorrow, with Kevin Warsh most likely to favour a 25 bp rate hike despite President Trump opposing one.
Nifty expiry prediction: What are the key levels?
With the Nifty 50 attempting to recover after its recent decline, traders will closely track key support and resistance levels to gauge whether the index can sustain the recovery or face renewed selling pressure. The expiry session could see heightened volatility, with technical indicators offering important cues for near-term direction.
Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the index could remain sideways as it seeks stability following the recent decline. He identified 23,300–23,350 as immediate support and 23,500–23,600 as resistance.
“A sustained move above 23,600 could extend the recovery, whereas a break below 23,250 may revive selling pressure. The overall bias is turning cautiously positive, supported by the stronger opening indication and recent recovery from lower levels,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst, Choice Broking.
Tailor, however, cautioned that the indices remain below key moving averages, leaving the broader trend under observation. Sustained buying above immediate resistance zones could strengthen the recovery, while failure to hold key supports could bring selling pressure back.
Meanwhile, Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct, also viewed the near-term setup as constructive, provided Nifty holds above 23,300. He said a decisive break below this level could pull the index towards 23,150, while 23,550 would be the immediate hurdle, followed by 23,750.
“If crude prices show signs of easing, the positive opening could gain further momentum and extend the recovery beyond the initial gap-up. The near-term undertone remains constructive as long as Nifty sustains above 23,300,” said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct.
Moreover, according to PL Technical Desk, Nifty would need to decisively cross the 23,800 zone to establish conviction and trigger further follow-through on the positive move. On the downside, the 23,000 zone remains an important near-term support.
Key levels to watch today
Immediate Support: 23,300–23,350
Lower Support: 23,150, followed by 23,000
Immediate Hurdle / Resistance: 23,500–23,600
Higher Resistance: 23,750
Major Resistance / Breakout Zone: 23,800
Upside Trigger: A decisive move above 23,800 could establish stronger conviction and support further recovery.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
