India’s current monsoon deficit is the highest since fiscal year 2016 (FY16), driven primarily by strengthening El Niño conditions. Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank, highlights that India’s reservoir levels are running below their 10-year average and, combined with uneven spatial distribution, threaten both kharif and rabi crops. This unfavourable dynamic raises the risk that food inflation will remain elevated, especially for perishable items. In an interview with Mint, Sen Gupta warns of stress in rural demand post-harvest in the March quarter (Q4FY27), which could, in turn, dampen rural consumption. Edited excerpts:
