(Bloomberg) — Oil-shipping rates for Middle Eastern routes have spiked after some tanker owners and managers paused offering vessels as they assess risks from Israel’s conflict with Iran, fueling concerns over flows from the region.
Key rates for supertankers voyaging from the Middle East to East Asia rose almost 60% in less than a week, according to shipbrokers and charterers, as exporters who had been trying to book ships were met with few offers. They asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly.
Meanwhile, some owners with tankers that had been provisionally chartered as of Friday, pending confirmation of the booking, chose not to extend the agreements into the weekend, one of them said.
The global oil market has been transfixed by the conflict in the Middle East, with Israeli strikes on Iranian energy and nuclear infrastructure roiling prices. While the likelihood of significant supply disruptions may be remote at this stage, the stability of shipping in and around the Middle East will be closely watched. The region is home to about a third of the world’s production, and major exporters such as Saudi Arabia have limited scope to divert exports if needed.
As hostilities have intensified, tanker owners are monitoring conditions for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Though ship diversions haven’t yet been spotted, owners are holding back on fixing new voyages in the Gulf, setting the stage for higher freight rates and the possibility of disruptions.
The benchmark rate for a supertanker capable of hauling 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East to China — the TD3C route — jumped to 70 to 71 Worldscale points on Monday, up from about 44 last Thursday, before Israel struck Iran, according to shipbrokers. Worldscale points are a percentage of an underlying flat rate, which is set for each major route at the start of the year.
On a per-day basis, chartering costs were near $46,000 on Monday, according to data from the Baltic Exchange. That’s up by more than $12,000 from the prior session, the biggest gain since February last year.
Forward-freight agreements — a derivative that allows buyers to lock in future rates — have increased as an indication of caution across the sector. FFAs for the TD3C route rose to around $14.50 a ton at one point on Monday, compared with about $11 before Israel’s attacks on Iran.
–With assistance from Alex Longley and John Deane.
(Updates throughout with latest rates.)
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