Gold prices above $4,400 appear expensive, while silver around $66 remains relatively cheap, according to Monarch PMS, which sees a clear divergence in the valuation of the two precious metals.
The brokerage’s valuation framework suggests that gold has already moved back towards its fair-value zone after a sharp speculative overshoot earlier this year. Silver, meanwhile, has corrected its relative excess against gold and is now trading below Monarch PMS’ estimated fair value.
Gold trades above fair-value midpoint
Monarch PMS has modelled a fair-value range of $3,248 to $4,595 an ounce for gold, with a midpoint of $3,922. As of September 8, gold was trading at around $4,355 an ounce, which was about 8% above the model’s midpoint but still roughly 8% below the upper end of the estimated range.
The January peak of $5,589, however, was 22% above the upper ceiling of the entire modelled range. Monarch PMS describes this as an “overshoot,” suggesting that the January high was driven more by speculative factors than fundamental valuation.
Gold subsequently corrected sharply and touched $3,985 in June, a level that was within 2% of the model’s $3,922 midpoint.
Gold correction brought prices closer to fair value
Monarch PMS believes the June correction is significant because gold’s decline stopped close to its estimated fair value before prices turned higher. The brokerage interprets the move as evidence that short-term and highly leveraged investors were among those who exited during the correction, while buyers stepped in around the fair-value zone.
Continued central bank buying also supports this interpretation, according to Monarch PMS.
The brokerage’s long-term gold valuation model shows that the metal traded below its modelled value for around 25 years before closing that gap in 2025. Gold then moved beyond the entire modelled range in January 2026 before correcting back into the range.
Monarch PMS said, “That is a market that has repriced to fair value and is deciding what to do next, not one that has exhausted itself.”
This suggests that the brokerage does not view the recent correction as evidence that gold’s long-term trend has necessarily run its course. Instead, it sees the metal as having moved from an extreme valuation back into a more reasonable range.
Silver looks cheaper than gold
The valuation picture looks different for silver. Monarch PMS values silver using its historical relationship with gold, measured through the gold-silver ratio. Historically, the ratio has varied significantly—from around 12:1 during the Roman Empire to 9.4:1 in medieval Europe. The US Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the ratio at 15:1.
After the monetary link between gold and silver was removed, the ratio widened substantially. It reached 98:1 when the US revalued gold to $35 an ounce in 1939 and stood at 97.5:1 after the gold standard was abandoned.
In the 21st century, the average gold-silver ratio has been around 69:1. For its valuation framework, Monarch PMS uses a normalised ratio of 60:1 against gold’s modelled price range.
Based on this approach, the brokerage estimates a fair-value range of $54 to $77 an ounce for silver, with a midpoint of $65. With silver trading at around $61.7, the metal was about 6% below Monarch PMS’ estimated midpoint.
This creates a notable contrast with gold. While gold was trading about 8% above its fair-value midpoint, silver was around 6% below its midpoint.
Gold-silver ratio signals relative value in silver
The gold-silver ratio also highlights the shift in relative valuations between the two metals. In January, the ratio compressed to around 46 times, its tightest level since 2011 and well below Monarch PMS’ normalised 60:1 ratio. This indicated that silver had become particularly expensive relative to gold during the January rally.
The ratio has since moved back to around 69 times, close to its 21st-century average, suggesting that the white metal has given back its entire relative overshoot, while gold has surrendered only part of its absolute overshoot.
The divergence is therefore important for investors comparing the two metals. Gold may still have fundamental support, but Monarch PMS’ valuation framework suggests that it is no longer cheap at current levels. Silver, on the other hand, is trading below its estimated fair-value midpoint.
What does Monarch PMS’ analysis mean for investors?
The brokerage’s valuation framework points to a different opportunity in the two precious metals. Gold above $4,400 is not considered cheap, as prices remain above the model’s fair-value midpoint, although they are still within the broader estimated range. Silver near $61–66, meanwhile, appears relatively undervalued under Monarch PMS’ 60:1 gold-silver ratio framework.
The key takeaway is that investors looking at the two metals purely from a valuation perspective may find silver more attractive than gold at current levels.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
