Indian benchmark indices remained under pressure on Tuesday, September 8, with the Sensex and Nifty declining up to 0.5% as fresh Middle East geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and renewed concerns over a possible US Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on sentiment.
The Sensex was down 436 points, or 0.56%, to its intra-day low of 75,697.02, while the Nifty declined 122 points, or 0.5%, to day’s low of 23,657.15.
The weakness came on Nifty expiry day, making the session particularly important for traders as volatility can rise around the expiry of index derivatives. At the same time, institutional selling added to the pressure on the broader market.
Nifty Expiry Today: Why Are Markets Under Pressure?
Rising crude prices and renewed risks of a widening Middle East conflict have emerged as major concerns for Indian equities. Iran has threatened retaliation against US assets in the event of further attacks on Tehran. Moreover, Brent crude futures were hovering around $97 per barrel.
Expiry day refers to the day when outstanding index derivative contracts, such as Nifty futures and options, reach their expiry. Traders holding positions need to close, roll over or settle them, which can result in higher trading activity and sharper intraday price movements. Consequently, support and resistance levels become particularly important for short-term traders.
The market is also contending with expectations of renewed monetary tightening in the US. Fears that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this month have contributed to the cautious tone, while an aggressive institutional sell-off has further weakened sentiment.
V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said the market has entered the fifth week of a slow but steady downtrend, with elevated crude prices, IT stock selling, Fed rate-hike fears and strong IPO activity contributing to the weakness.
“Since the macro construct which contributed to this downtrend persists, it is possible that the downtrend may continue in the near-term. But this trend is opening up opportunities for investors in large-caps which continue to remain weak despite improving fundamentals.” — V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited
Nifty Expiry Today Prediction: Technical Outlook
Technically, the Nifty is trading below its key moving averages, keeping the broader setup under pressure. Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the immediate support zone is at 23,650–23,700, while resistance is placed at 23,950–24,000.
“Holding the support zone could encourage a technical rebound, whereas a sustained break below 23,650 may accelerate the downside. Overall, the near-term bias remains cautious to bearish, with elevated crude prices and renewed Middle East tensions restraining risk appetite.” — Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst, Choice Broking
Tailor also expects Nifty to remain volatile around key support levels, with any recovery potentially facing selling at higher levels. He suggested that traders adopt a wait-and-watch approach until stronger buying emerges.
Meanwhile, Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct, said the near-term undertone remains cautious while Nifty trades below 23,800. He sees 23,700 as immediate support, with a break below it potentially taking the index towards 23,550. Resistance is placed at 23,950 and 24,150. Positive Asian cues could provide some early support, although another spike in crude prices could restrict any meaningful recovery.
For day traders, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted 23,800/76,200 as a key resistance zone. Below this level, he expects the correction to continue towards 23,670-23,600/76,000-75,600. A move above 23,800/76,200 could extend the pullback towards 23,950-24,050 / 76,500-76,800.
Nifty Options Data: What Traders Should Watch?
Options data also points to important levels around the current market setup. According to Ventura, Nifty open interest peaks at the 24,000 Call and 23,500 Put, while the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.68.
The options positioning, combined with the technical levels highlighted by analysts, makes the 23,650-23,700 zone particularly important for the expiry session. A sustained hold above this area could allow a technical rebound, whereas a decisive breakdown could open the way towards lower levels.
Key levels to watch today
Immediate Support: 23,650–23,700
Immediate Hurdle / Resistance: 23,950–24,000
Higher Resistance: 24,150
Upside Extension: 24,050, with 24,150 as the next major hurdle
Day-trader Resistance: 23,800
With the Nifty trading below 23,800 and expiry-day volatility in focus, traders will need to watch whether the index holds the 23,650–23,700 support zone or breaks below it. For investors, the broader downtrend remains a concern.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
