Global markets today: As geopolitical developments and global macroeconomic expectations continue to shape risk sentiment, global markets are dropping a positive hint for the Indian stock market. The US stock market finished upside on Friday, whereas the Asian markets have opened higher in the early morning dealings on Monday. In the US stock market, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index ended 1.30% higher, the Small Cap 2000 index gained around 1.60%, whereas the S&P 500 index added 0.68%.
In Asian markets today, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index rose over 2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.77%, and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.05% during the early morning session on Monday.
Iran-Oman deal in focus
Advising investors to remain vigilant about the developments in the Middle East, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “Despite the supportive opening, investor focus remains firmly on the evolving situation in the Middle East. Reports suggest Iran is moving closer to an agreement with Oman on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although negotiations remain conditional, with Tehran reportedly seeking U.S. compensation and sanctions relief as part of any final arrangement. Until a formal agreement is reached, geopolitical uncertainty is likely to keep investors cautious and limit aggressive risk-taking.”
Crude oil price sustains at higher levels
WTI crude oil is holding in the $78–$79 per barrel range after rebounding from last week’s lows, suggesting that markets continue to price in a residual geopolitical risk premium even as diplomatic efforts progress. For India, sustained stability in crude prices will remain critical for the inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate input costs.
Global markets’ equity heatmap
Here we list out the equity heatmap of the global markets today:
US stock market: Weak job data eases US Fed rate hike concern
US equities rallied sharply on Friday after an unexpected contraction in July employment prompted investors to sharply scale back expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The S&P 500 gained 0.62% to a fresh record close, the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.3% advance, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.28%.
The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, compared with economists’ expectations for an increase of 83,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Revisions to May and June payrolls erased a combined 103,000 jobs, and labour-force participation fell to its lowest level in more than five years, reinforcing evidence of a cooling labour market.
Stock-specific moves remained a dominant theme. Atlassian surged 34% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and raising its outlook, Cloudflare gained 10% on an improved full-year forecast, and SpaceX rallied 12%, capping a nearly 19% weekly advance. The broader market also ended the week on a strong footing, with the S&P 500 rising more than 3% and the Nasdaq advancing over 4%—its strongest weekly performance since April—supported by a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks, with the SOXX ETF gaining more than 7% over the week.
Oil markets, however, painted a more cautious picture. Crude prices eased on Friday as the absence of a final U.S.-Iran agreement kept traders on edge. Reports of explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, linked to Iran intercepting what it described as “hostile targets,” underscored the fragile security situation. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and Oman continued, with reports suggesting Tehran is seeking restrictions on U.S. and Israeli vessels as part of any interim shipping arrangement.
Asian Markets
Asian markets opened on a firmer footing, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gaining over 2% and South Korea’s Kospi gaining more than 1% in early trade, offering a welcome respite after a sharp correction in regional technology stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up by 0.77%.
The rebound follows Friday’s weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which significantly reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike and improved global risk sentiment. Japan’s gains were led by electronics and metal stocks, while investors cautiously returned to beaten-down technology shares. Even so, market participants remain watchful over whether the recovery marks the beginning of a more durable rebound or merely a pause in the recent reassessment of AI-related valuations.
European Markets
European equities recorded a fourth consecutive record close on Friday, supported by strong corporate earnings and shifting expectations for global interest rates. The pan-European STOXX 600 finished at another all-time high, while the Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.4%.
Germany’s DAX was among the week’s strongest performers, led by technology heavyweights SAP and Infineon. Italy’s FTSE MIB also outperformed, supported by gains in Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit alongside optimism surrounding the country’s fiscal reforms. For the week, the STOXX 50 advanced about 2.6%, while the STOXX 600 gained roughly 1.7%, with technology emerging as the region’s best-performing sector.
What does it mean for the Indian stock market today?
Reflecting improved sentiment, GIFT Nifty futures indicate a positive start for domestic markets. The index is trading around 100 points higher than Friday’s spot Nifty close.
Expecting a gap-up opening for the Indian stock market, Ponmudi said, “Indian equity markets are expected to open on a steady note, supported by firm regional cues, although investors are likely to remain selective as geopolitical developments and global macroeconomic expectations continue to shape risk sentiment.”
Nifty 50 to Sensex today: Outlook for key indices
Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 / Sensex today, Amol Athawale, VP — Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said, “We believe that the short-term market outlook remains positive, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the dismissal of 24,700/79100. Above this level, the market could move up to the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 24,800-24,850/80000-80200. Further upside could continue, lifting the market to 25,000-25,100/80600-80900.”
On the outlook for the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The Bank Nifty index continues to trade in a consolidation phase, with both the weekly and daily charts forming small-bodied candlesticks, reflecting indecision among market participants. The RSI is hovering near the neutral zone around 53, indicating a lack of strong momentum. Despite the sideways movement, the index remains above its key moving averages, keeping the broader trend positive. Technically, strong support is at 57,400, while immediate resistance is at 58,200–58,500, near the falling trendline. Unless a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs, the index is likely to remain range-bound, offering trading opportunities within the 57,400–58,300 range.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
