(Bloomberg) — Gold moved in a narrow range as traders monitored talks in the Middle East for signs of progress that would ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Bullion traded around $4,050 an ounce, after ending the previous session 0.2% higher. The US and Iran both signaled that negotiations to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were ongoing, raising hopes for a pickup in supply that would soften energy-driven inflation. Oil prices were also steady after sliding on Monday.
President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks is Tehran’s “last chance” and that he expects a full reopening of the strait. Tehran denied it was talking with the US, but said discussions with Oman to get more ships moving through the key waterway were making progress.
The Fed’s Bank of New York President John Williams said Monday that interest rates remain well positioned as inflation should ease during the second half of the year. The central bank left rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range last week, despite three officials dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike.
Citi Research analysts said gold prices could stagnate or even decline over the next month before rallying to $4,500 an ounce in the fourth quarter.
“Our base case is for the US/Iran conflict to end and Hormuz flows normalizing and, with this, lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar and stronger investor interest in gold returning,” the analysts including Kenny Hu said in a note. “This could happen as soon as September-December, but is highly dependent on the conflict ending.”
Gold is down by more than a fifth since the US-Iran war began more than five months ago, with high energy prices stoking inflationary pressures and raising the likelihood that interest rates will stay higher for longer — a headwind for precious metals, which don’t pay interest.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,052.81 an ounce as of 7:20 a.m. in Singapore. Silver dipped 0.1% to $58.11 an ounce. Platinum and palladium also edged lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was flat after ending the previous session marginally lower.
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