CXMT, China’s leading DRAM chipmaker, made a blockbuster debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Monday. Its shares surged 466%, pushing its market value to 3.28 trillion yuan ($484.6 billion) and making it mainland China’s most valuable onshore-listed company. The development comes at a crucial time as CXMT faces mounting pressure from Washington after being added to the Pentagon’s blacklist over its alleged ties to China’s military and state apparatus. Could US restrictions backfire by strengthening CXMT and creating a more formidable Chinese chip rival?
Could restrictions accelerate CXMT’s rise as a Chinese chip rival?
“Yes, definitely,” says Paresh N. Bhagat, MD & Chairperson of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, adding, “but the effect operates at two different speeds.”
Short-term impact
In the near term, restrictions will clearly slow down CXMT, as advanced DRAM manufacturing requires high-end lithography, deposition, etching, inspection, ion implantation, specialised materials, and design software. The US export controls now cover 24 types of chipmaking equipment and three types of software. China still lacks strong domestic alternatives to EUV lithography and advanced inspection systems.
Also, CXMT remains around two generations behind global leaders in high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
Long-term impact
But the restrictions are also creating a stronger incentive to localise. Chinese fabs are now using domestic equipment at scale while working with local suppliers to improve their yield, reliability and performance.
“The shift is already visible. The share of domestically manufactured equipment used in China reportedly increased from approximately 25% in 2024 to 35% in 2025, while domestic adoption in etching and thin-film deposition exceeded 40%,” Bhagat noted. In fact, Beijing has directed chipmakers to use at least 50% domestically produced equipment when adding new capacity.
China’s homegrown chip push gains momentum:
- Since being placed on the Entity List, YMTC has reportedly replaced around half of its equipment with Chinese machinery.
- AMEC says its etching tools are used in applications ranging from 65nm to 5nm, while Piotech’s deposition equipment has been installed across more than 60 integrated-circuit production lines.
- China is also beginning production of domestic immersion DUV lithography machines, with approximately five units planned for 2026 and 20 in 2027, potentially for customers including CXMT, SMIC and Hua Hong.
So in a way, US export controls are unintentionally pushing China to build a more self-reliant chip industry and narrow its technology gap faster.
Does CXMT threaten the global memory-chip oligopoly?
The threat is real, but it is more immediate for mainstream DRAM than advanced HBM.
CXMT has already become the world’s fourth-largest DRAM producer, with approximately 7.7% global market share in 2025, challenging a market historically dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
But, CXMT does not need to overtake Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron technologically to disrupt the market. “A state-backed fourth player adding significant DRAM capacity could pressure pricing, reduce the incumbents’ control over supply discipline and gradually displace foreign memory suppliers within China.”
“Washington may be buying time by restricting CXMT, but it may also be creating the commercial urgency, guaranteed demand and funding needed to build the competitor it is trying to contain,” Bhagat concludes.
