Global markets today: The Indian stock market is expected to trade cautiously, balancing an improving geopolitical backdrop against renewed volatility in global technology stocks. The US continues to pause strikes on Iran, keeping hopes of a diplomatic resolution alive, although investors remain cautious as markets await tangible progress in the ongoing negotiations. Early indications from Gift Nifty futures, trading around the 24,000 mark, point to a largely flat start for domestic equities.
Crude oil prices extended their decline as optimism over renewed talks with Iran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions. WTI crude is currently trading in the $81 to $82 per barrel range, offering further relief for India’s inflation outlook and import bill, while also supporting broader macroeconomic sentiment.
“The improvement in geopolitical sentiment has been overshadowed by a sharp sell-off across Asian equity markets, led by technology stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 3%, while South Korea’s Kospi has plunged over 7% in early trade, as renewed concerns over elevated AI-related valuations and weakening global risk appetite triggered broad-based selling across the technology sector,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.
The Enrich Money expert said that easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices provide a supportive backdrop for Indian equities, but the sharp correction in Asian technology stocks is likely to keep investor sentiment subdued. With concerns over the global AI trade weighing on risk appetite, domestic markets are expected to adopt a cautious stance despite the relief from softer crude prices.
Global markets’ equity heatmap
Here we list out the equity heatmap of the global markets today:
US equities
US equities ended mixed on Monday as easing tensions between the US and Iran and a sharp decline in oil prices helped offset renewed weakness in semiconductor stocks, with investors positioning ahead of a pivotal week featuring Big Tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51%, snapping a four-session losing streak, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.02%.
The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18%, weighed down by a nearly 5% decline in Nvidia and broader weakness across chipmakers. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell more than 2%, extending Friday’s losses, as concerns over AI-related valuations resurfaced. Chip stocks had briefly rallied earlier in the session following Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT’s blockbuster Shanghai IPO before profit-taking erased those gains. Meanwhile, WTI crude extended its decline after Washington and Tehran maintained their pause in hostilities and resumed efforts to revive diplomatic negotiations.
Asian markets today
Asian markets are poised for a weaker session as renewed selling in semiconductor stocks continues to weigh on investor sentiment, overshadowing the positive impact of lower crude oil prices. Futures indicate sharp declines, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down more than 4% and South Korea’s Kospi falling over 8%, tracking an almost 2.2% overnight decline in the US semiconductor index.
Nasdaq 100 futures also edged lower in early Asian trading, suggesting that concerns over elevated AI-related valuations remain a dominant theme despite the easing geopolitical backdrop.
European markets
European equities closed broadly higher despite a late pullback in technology stocks. Germany’s DAX gained more than 1%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 each advanced over 0.4%. The pan-European STOXX 600 finished little changed after early gains driven by easing geopolitical tensions and sharply lower oil prices were offset by weakness in the technology sector. ASML tumbled 8.4% after reports that China has begun manufacturing its own deep-ultraviolet lithography machines, raising concerns about the Dutch company’s long-term competitive position.
The weakness spread across the semiconductor supply chain, with ASM International and BE Semiconductor also posting sharp losses. Brent crude fell around 6% to trade near $90 a barrel, reflecting easing concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Outlook for the Indian stock market today
Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 / Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, “We believe that as long as the market is trading above 23,880/76500, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could retest the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 24,100-24,150/77000-77300. On the flip side, below 23,880/76500, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If it falls below this level, the market could slip to 23,800-23,725/76200-76000.”
On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The Bank Nifty ended the session with a small Doji candlestick, indicating indecision, while a positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart suggests improving short-term momentum. However, the index continues to face a crucial hurdle near 57,400, where its 200-DMA is placed. A decisive close above this level could trigger a recovery towards 58,500. Until the index reclaims and sustains above its 200-DMA, a cautious stance is advisable. Immediate support is placed at 56,800, while resistance levels are seen at 57,500 and 58,000.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
