Global market’s equity heatmap: The key benchmark of the Indian stock market are poised for a weak start as investors remain on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sharp surge in global crude oil prices. The renewed spike in energy costs has heightened concerns over inflation, prompting a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and reinforcing a broader risk-off mood across global financial markets.
WTI crude has climbed into the $92–93 per barrel range, while Brent has moved above the psychologically important $100- a-barrel mark, raising fresh concerns over global growth and the outlook for major oil-importing economies such as India.
Early indications from Gift Nifty point to a gap-down opening for domestic equities, with the index trading near 23,700 compared with the Nifty’s previous close of 23,869.60, suggesting investors are likely to remain cautious at the start of the session.
US-Iran news in focus
Pointing towards the US-Iran war, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “On the geopolitical front, U.S. forces carried out fresh strikes on Iran as the military campaign entered its 13th consecutive night. The widening US–Iran war continues to dominate global markets, with the Middle East remaining the primary headline risk and the ongoing escalation directly fueling the rally in crude oil prices.”
On other triggers that are weighing on the global markets, Ponmudi R said, “Adding to the cautious sentiment, concerns over the pace and sustainability of global AI-related capital spending have weighed on technology stocks globally, limiting risk appetite across equity markets. Global markets remained under pressure, with U.S. and European markets ending lower overnight, while Asian markets trading sharply weaker, led by declines of around 3% in both the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices.”
Global market’s equity heatmap
Here’s global equity heatmap to know before the Indian stock market opens today.
Asian markets today
Asian markets are poised for a sharply weaker open as investors react to Wall Street’s technology-led selloff and another surge in oil prices. WTI crude has risen more than 6.8% over the past two sessions, reinforcing concerns over inflation and global growth.
Futures indicate losses across the region, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 expected to fall about 2.7% and South Korea’s Kospi nearly 2.6%. Following Wall Street’s worst session in a month and a sharp decline in megacap technology stocks, investor sentiment across Asia is expected to remain fragile as markets continue to assess geopolitical developments and their implications for inflation and monetary policy.
US equities
U.S. equities recorded their steepest decline in a month on Thursday as a sharp rise in oil prices and renewed concerns over artificial-intelligence spending prompted investors to cut risk exposure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 506.93 points, or 0.97%, while the S&P 500 declined 1.21% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.15%, led by heavy selling in technology stocks.
Alphabet extended its post-earnings decline, falling a further 6.5%–7%, while Tesla plunged 14% after investors digested the latest quarterly results. Alphabet’s decision to raise its capital-expenditure forecast to as much as $205 billion reignited concerns over the scale of AI-related spending, while Tesla’s earnings fell well short of expectations despite 26% revenue growth. Both companies also reported negative free cash flow during the quarter, adding to concerns over the sustainability of elevated AI and technology investments.
Adding to the risk-off mood, WTI crude climbed above $92 a barrel for the first time in two months after Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, while the U.S. carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. The renewed surge in energy prices fuelled inflation concerns, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs and further dampening investor sentiment.
Europrean Markets
European equities extended their decline on Thursday as surging oil prices, escalating Middle East tensions and weakness in technology stocks weighed on sentiment. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 1.18%, while London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.73%, Germany’s DAX declined 1.56% and France’s CAC 40 retreated 1.64%.
STMicroelectronics was the biggest drag on the STOXX 600, tumbling more than 16% after missing profit expectations. Nestlé fell 7% after announcing the sale of its stake in its Waters business to private equity firm Platinum Equity.
The European Central Bank left its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. However, investors remain alert to the possibility of further policy tightening later this year as higher energy prices threaten to complicate the inflation outlook.
Outlook for the Indian stock market today
Gift Nifty is pointing to a sharply weaker start for Indian equities, trading near 23,681 and indicating a gap-down opening. The combination of elevated crude oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions and the overnight selloff on Wall Street is expected to keep investors firmly in a risk-averse mood.
On the outlook of the Nifty 50 / Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, “We are of the view that as long as the market is trading below the 23,950/76500 mark, a weak structure is likely to continue. On the downside, the market could slip to 23,700-23,650/76000-75700. On the flip side, above 23,950/76500, the sentiment could change. Beyond this level, it could bounce back to 24,050-24,100/76800-77000.”
On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The Bank Nifty formed a strong bearish candlestick on the daily chart, closing below its 200-day moving average while holding just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 52,833–58,696 rally. The RSI is making lower highs and lower lows, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. The 56,000 mark remains a crucial support level, and a decisive breach could trigger further downside towards lower levels. Traders should maintain a cautious approach and follow strict risk management. Immediate support is placed at 56,200, while resistance is seen near 57,200.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
