The Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautious note on Monday, as escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East continues to cloud the global risk environment amid surging crude oil prices. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex today.
The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,302 level, a discount of nearly 19 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
“The ongoing first-quarter earnings season is expected to become the primary driver of market action. Rather than witnessing a broad-based directional move, investors are likely to focus on company-specific opportunities, with quarterly earnings, management commentary, and forward guidance from heavyweight companies shaping sectoral performance,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
According to him, until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments, stock-specific movements are expected to dominate trading, while the broader indices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Global market cues remain mostly weak. Here’s a world equity heatmap to know before the opening of the Indian stock market today.
Asian Markets
Asian markets traded lower on Monday as the escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East dented sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi crashed 4.18%, while the Kosdaq slipped 4.97%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.85%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 1.72% at open. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
“Broader regional sentiment remains subdued as markets reassess AI-related valuations following one of the sector’s sharpest weekly corrections in recent months,” said Ponmudi R.
Wall Street
US stock market ended lower on Friday, weighed down by the selloff in semiconductor stocks broadened.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 406.55 points, or 0.77%, to 52,146.42, and the S&P 500 declined 76.08 points, or 1.01%, to 7,457.69. The Nasdaq Composite closed 361.70 points, or 1.40%, lower at 25,520.24.
“The weakness was triggered by the launch of a breakthrough open-source AI model from Chinese startup Moonshot AI, which claims to have narrowed the performance gap with leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic. The announcement reignited concerns that the massive capital expenditure on AI infrastructure may not generate commensurate returns,” said the Enrich Money analyst.
European Markets
European equities ended lower on Friday as the global technology sell-off spread across regional markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 declined 0.34%, led lower by semiconductor and technology stocks. ASML, ASM International (ASMI), and STMicroelectronics posted notable losses as investors reduced exposure to AI-related names.
Among the major indices, Germany’s DAX fell 0.34%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.47%. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed, edging 0.27% higher as investors rotated into more defensive sectors.
Nifty 50 Outlook
According to Ponmudi R, while continued weakness in global semiconductor stocks may weigh on technology sentiment, India’s relatively limited direct exposure to the AI hardware ecosystem could help shield the broader market from the sharper volatility witnessed in global technology markets.
“From a technical perspective, 24,200 remains the immediate support for the Nifty 50 index, with a sustained break below this level potentially opening the door toward 24,000. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 24,400; a decisive move above this level could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a retest of 24,500 and recent highs,” he said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
