The Indian equity barometer, Nifty 50, has delivered negative returns since the last Independence Day, largely due to US tariff-related concerns, heightened geopolitical risks, weak earnings, and heavy foreign capital outflows.
The benchmark index Nifty 50 is down 2% over the last year. However, the broader Nifty 500 index has outperformed, clocking a 3% gain in the same period. In fact, Capitalmarket data show that 15 stocks in the Nifty 500 index have at least doubled investors’ money since the last Independence Day.
Stocks that hogged the limelight
Despite stock market weakness, 15 Nifty 500 components have jumped over 100%, while 50 index stocks have risen over 50% in the last 1 year. Overall, 255 stocks in the index are in the green since last year.
Among the gainers, Ather Energy, Aditya Infotech, and HFCL have surged over 200% each in the period, while Acutaas Chemical, Netweb Tech, Kirloskar Oil, R R Kabel, Vodafone Idea, Hindustan Copper, Welspun Corp, Laurus Labs, Syrma SGS Tech, CPCL, Adani Energy, and National Aluminium are uo pver 100%.
On the flip side, Cohance Life, KPIT Tech, Reliance Power, Inox Wind, CE Info System, Brainbees Solutions, KEC International, TRIL, Kaynes Tech, and Patanjali Foods are the top laggards in the Nifty 500 index, falling between 40-50%.
What has driven the market since last Independence Day?
The domestic market has performed poorly due to a confluence of headwinds- from weak earnings, geopolitical risks, to foreign capital outflow, even as India’s economic growth and inflation dynamics remain healthy.
The US-Iran conflict, elevated crude oil prices, tariff-related uncertainty and persistent FPI selling weighed on sentiment. Besides, gold’s strong rally reflected risk aversion, while the global AI-led disruption narrative created pressure on Indian IT stocks and broader technology valuations.
Experts say that the Nifty’s decline since last Independence Day reflects a valuation and liquidity reset rather than a breakdown in India’s structural growth story.
“The market entered this period with a sizeable valuation premium, but earnings growth did not accelerate enough to justify that premium. At the same time, foreign capital found stronger near-term earnings momentum in markets linked to the global AI and semiconductor cycle, while India had to absorb FII selling, currency pressure, trade uncertainty and intermittent crude oil volatility,” Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVAsset PMS, noted.
“Domestic liquidity has provided an important cushion, but it has not fully offset the change in global allocation. The market has effectively spent the past year asking earnings to catch up with valuations,” Dasani added.
The road ahead
The market’s performance over the next year will depend on earnings recovery and geopolitical factors. The June quarter (Q1FY27) earnings have been healthy, and experts expect the trend to continue if crude oil prices remain stable near $80 per barrel and the US-Iran conflict is settled.
“The one-year outlook for Indian equities remains positive. Earnings are gradually broadening, with more than 70% of listed companies reporting improvements, which could strengthen investor confidence and potentially attract FPIs back. Domestic liquidity, economic growth, earnings recovery and easing inflation will remain key drivers. However, global geopolitics and crude prices remain important risks,” said Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
